Predictive nomograms for early death in metastatic bladder cancer.

Background: Metastatic bladder cancer (MBC) is an incurable malignancy, which is prone to early death. We aimed to establish models to evaluating the risk of early death in patients with metastatic bladder cancer. Methods: The data of 1,264 patients with MBC registered from 2010 to 2015 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We utilized X-tile software to determine the optimal cut-off points of age and tumor size in diagnosis. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify significant independent risk factors for total early death and cancer-specific early death, then we construct two practical nomograms. In order to validate our prediction models, we performed calibration plots, receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) curves, decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC). Result: A total of 1,216 patients with MBC were included in this study. 463 patients died prematurely (≤3 months), and among them 424 patients died of cancer-specific early death. The nomogram of total premature death was created by surgery, chemotherapy, tumor size, histological type, liver metastases, and nomogram of cancer-specific early death was based on surgery, race, tumor size, histological type, chemotherapy, and metastases (liver, brain). Through the verify of calibration plots, receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) curves, decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC), we concluded that nomogram were a valid tool with excellent clinical utility to help clinicians predict premature death in MBC patients. Conclusions: The nomograms derived from the analysis of patients with MBC, which can provide refined prediction of premature death and furnish clinicians with useful ideas for patient-specific treatment options and follow-up scheduling.