ArticleFrontiers in immunology2022
The impact of cross-reactive immunity on the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants.
Article in Frontiers in immunology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Modeling two-strain competition with reinfection: Mathematical analyses and epidemiological implications.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Demographic changes and behavioural responses shape vulnerability to infectious disease outbreaks.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Role of the Virome in Vaccine-Induced Immunization.Vaccines · 2025Review
- The Mathematics of Serocatalytic Models With Applications to Public Health Data.Statistics in medicine · 2025Article
- Pathogen priming alters host transmission potential and predictors of transmissibility in a wild songbird species.mSphere · 2025Article
- How cultural innovations trigger the emergence of new pathogens.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Prioritising older individuals for COVID-19 booster vaccination leads to optimal public health outcomes in a range of socio-economic settings.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Immune imprinting and next-generation coronavirus vaccines.Nature microbiology · 2023Review
- Analysis of the risk and pre-emptive control of viral outbreaks accounting for within-host dynamics: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Modeling the XBB strain of SARS-CoV-2: Competition between variants and impact of reinfection.Journal of theoretical biology · 2023Article
- An adaptive testing strategy for efficient utilization of healthcare resources during an epidemic.Journal of theoretical biology · 2023Article
- Impact of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 Viral Infection on Immunoglobulin-IgG Cross-Reactivity.Vaccines · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
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Abstract
Introduction: A key feature of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with different transmission characteristics. However, when a novel variant arrives in a host population, it will not necessarily lead to many cases. Instead, it may fade out, due to stochastic effects and the level of immunity in the population. Immunity against novel SARS-CoV-2 variants may be influenced by prior exposures to related viruses, such as other SARS-CoV-2 variants and seasonal coronaviruses, and the level of cross-reactive immunity conferred by those exposures. Methods: Here, we investigate the impact of cross-reactive immunity on the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants in a simplified scenario in which a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant is introduced after an antigenically related virus has spread in the population. We use mathematical modelling to explore the risk that the novel variant invades the population and causes a large number of cases, as opposed to fading out with few cases. Results: We find that, if cross-reactive immunity is complete (i.e. someone infected by the previously circulating virus is not susceptible to the novel variant), the novel variant must be more transmissible than the previous virus to invade the population. However, in a more realistic scenario in which cross-reactive immunity is partial, we show that it is possible for novel variants to invade, even if they are less transmissible than previously circulating viruses. This is because partial cross-reactive immunity effectively increases the pool of susceptible hosts that are available to the novel variant compared to complete cross-reactive immunity. Furthermore, if previous infection with the antigenically related virus assists the establishment of infection with the novel variant, as has been proposed following some experimental studies, then even variants with very limited transmissibility are able to invade the host population. Discussion: Our results highlight that fast assessment of the level of cross-reactive immunity conferred by related viruses against novel SARS-CoV-2 variants is an essential component of novel variant risk assessments.
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