Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36711415›Full record

ArticleFrontiers in public health2022

Projecting the chronic disease burden among the adult population in the United States using a multi-state population model.

John P Ansah, Chi-Tsun Chiu

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Frontiers in public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 108 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
108citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
39.3field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

108 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 181 citations in OpenAlex.

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  8. Noninferior Immunogenicity and Consistent Safety of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Prefusion F Protein Vaccine in Adults 50-59 Years Compared to ≥60 Years of Age.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024
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  10. One-year mortality and functional outcome of inpatients aged 85 and older with thoracolumbar vertebral fractures: differences between operative and conservative treatment.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2026
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48 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

John P AnsahCenter for Community Health Integration, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, United States.
Chi-Tsun ChiuInstitute of European and American Studies, Academia Sinica, New Taipei, Taiwan.
Case Western Reserve University · USInstitute of European and American Studies, Academia Sinica · TW

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Introduction: As the United States population ages, the adult population with chronic diseases is expected to increase. Exploring credible, evidence-based projections of the future burden of chronic diseases is fundamental to understanding the likely impact of established and emerging interventions on the incidence and prevalence of chronic disease. Projections of chronic disease often involve cross-sectional data that fails to account for the transition of individuals across different health states. Thus, this research aims to address this gap by projecting the number of adult Americans with chronic disease based on empirically estimated age, gender, and race-specific transition rates across predetermined health states. Methods: We developed a multi-state population model that disaggregates the adult population in the United States into three health states, i.e., (a) healthy, (b) one chronic condition, and (c) multimorbidity. Data from the 1998 to 2018 Health and Retirement Study was used to estimate age, gender, and race-specific transition rates across the three health states, as input to the multi-state population model to project future chronic disease burden. Results: The number of people in the United States aged 50 years and older will increase by 61.11% from 137.25 million in 2020 to 221.13 million in 2050. Of the population 50 years and older, the number with at least one chronic disease is estimated to increase by 99.5% from 71.522 million in 2020 to 142.66 million by 2050. At the same time, those with multimorbidity are projected to increase 91.16% from 7.8304 million in 2020 to 14.968 million in 2050. By race by 2050, 64.6% of non-Hispanic whites will likely have one or more chronic conditions, while for non-Hispanic black, 61.47%, and Hispanic and other races 64.5%. Conclusion: The evidence-based projections provide the foundation for policymakers to explore the impact of interventions on targeted population groups and plan for the health workforce required to provide adequate care for current and future individuals with chronic diseases.

Indexed as

EthnicityWhite PeopleAdultAgedChronic DiseaseCross-Sectional StudiesHispanic or LatinoHumansMiddle AgedUnited Statesadult populationchronic diseasemulti-state population projectionprojectionsUnited States of America

Identifiers

PMID36711415
PMCPMC9881650
OpenAlexW4316036383

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.