ArticleAmerican journal of epidemiology2023
Waning of 2-Dose BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 Vaccine Effectiveness Against Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection Accounting for Depletion-of-Susceptibles Bias.
Article in American journal of epidemiology, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Long-term effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against infections, hospitalisations, and mortality in adults: findings from a rapid living systematic evidence synthesis and meta-analysis up to December, 2022.The Lancet. Respiratory medicine · 2023Pooled it
- Safety, immunogenicity and efficacy of the self-amplifying mRNA ARCT-154 COVID-19 vaccine: pooled phase 1, 2, 3a and 3b randomized, controlled trials.Nature communications · 2024Trial
- Effectiveness of the 2023 Autumn XBB.1.5 COVID-19 Booster During Summer 2024 in the EU/EEA: A VEBIS Electronic Health Record Network Study.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2025Article
- Waning in influenza vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09-associated hospitalization in children in 2012/2013.Epidemiology and infection · 2025Article
- Effectiveness and Impact of Autumn 2023 COVID-19 Vaccination in Preventing Hospitalizations in Navarre, Spain, October 2023 to September 2024.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2025Article
- Differential clearance rate of proteins encoded on a self-amplifying mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in muscle and lymph nodes.Biochemistry and biophysics reports · 2025Article
- Intensity of public health and social measures are associated with effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in test-negative study.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness Against Medically Attended Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Target Groups in Europe, October 2024-January 2025, VEBIS Primary Care Network.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2025Article
- Longitudinal cellular and humoral immune responses following COVID-19 BNT162b2-mRNA-based booster vaccination of craft and manual workers in Qatar.Frontiers in immunology · 2025Article
- Article
- A randomized trial comparing safety, immunogenicity and efficacy of self-amplifying mRNA and adenovirus-vector COVID-19 vaccines.NPJ vaccines · 2024Article
- Effectiveness of Pfizer Vaccine BNT162b2 Against SARS-CoV-2 in Americans 16 and Older: A Systematic Review.Cureus · 2024Review
- EXAMINING BIAS FROM DIFFERENTIAL DEPLETION OF SUSCEPTIBLES IN VACCINE EFFECTIVENESS ESTIMATES IN SETTINGS OF WANING.American journal of epidemiology · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
13 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Concerns about the duration of protection conferred by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines have arisen in postlicensure evaluations. "Depletion of susceptibles," a bias driven by differential accrual of infection among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, may obscure vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates, hindering interpretation. We enrolled California residents who received molecular SARS-CoV-2 tests in a matched, test-negative design, case-control study to estimate VE of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines between February 23 and December 5, 2021. We analyzed waning protection following 2 vaccine doses using conditional logistic regression models. Additionally, we used data from a population-based serological study to adjust for "depletion-of-susceptibles" bias and estimated VE for 3 doses, by time since second dose receipt. Pooled VE of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection was 91.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): 83.8, 95.4) at 14 days after second-dose receipt and declined to 50.8% (95% CI: 19.7, 69.8) at 7 months. Adjusting for depletion-of-susceptibles bias, we estimated VE of 53.2% (95% CI: 23.6, 71.2) at 7 months after primary mRNA vaccination series. A booster dose of BN162b2 or mRNA-1273 increased VE to 95.0% (95% CI: 82.8, 98.6). These findings confirm that observed waning of protection is not attributable to epidemiologic bias and support ongoing efforts to administer additional vaccine doses to mitigate burden of COVID-19.
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Registered trials
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