ArticleThe lancet. HIV2023
Adult HIV-1 incidence across 15 high-burden countries in sub-Saharan Africa from 2015 to 2019: a pooled analysis of nationally representative data.
Article in The lancet. HIV, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Pooled it
- Natural Language Processing Analysis of WhatsApp Messages to Identify Unrecognized HIV Prevention Needs Among Young Women in Kenya.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2026Article
- HIV Transmission and Immunology of the Male Reproductive Tract.American journal of reproductive immunology (New York, N.Y. : 1989) · 2026Review
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- Self-Reported Prevalence and Predictors of HIV and Gonorrhea Among Primary Healthcare Attendees: A Cross-Sectional Study from Saudi Arabia.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Pulse waveform analysis in Zambian adults living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy: A cross-sectional study of vascular dysfunction.Physiological reports · 2026Article
- An HIV-1 Risk Assessment Tool for Men Aged 15-59 years in 13 African Countries: A Pooled Analysis of Nationally Representative Surveys.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2026Article
- Decadal trends in HIV prevalence among socio-demographic groups and health behaviours in Ethiopia: a cross-sectional seroprevalence study.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- A population-based survey pooled analysis of women engaged in commercial sex in the HIV care cascade in sub-Saharan Africa, 2015-2017.Discover public health · 2026Article
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- High transmission risk of Human Immunodeficiency Virus in blood transfusions: A critical evaluation of blood bank serological tests in Mozambique.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Challenges to Physical Activity Participation Among Older People Living with HIV: Scoping Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025Article
- The impact of cuts in the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief funding for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study.The lancet. HIV · 2025Article
- Gut microbiota of sub-Saharan Africa infants exposed to antiretroviral therapy: Scoping review.African journal of primary health care & family medicine · 2025Article
- Mental health disorders among people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review protocol.BMJ open · 2025Article
- Performance Characteristics of an HIV-1 Rapid Recency Assay Among Treatment-Naïve Individuals.AIDS research and human retroviruses · 2025Article
- Predictors of unsuppressed viral load among MSM with HIV in South Africa.AIDS (London, England) · 2025Article
- The wartime prevalence of HIV, HBV, and reported STI-related syndromes among tested individuals in Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Tigray, Ethiopia.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Antiretroviral Use for HIV Prevention During Pregnancy: The Need to Strengthen Regulatory and Surveillance Systems in Africa.Drug safety · 2025Article
- Characterizing populations prioritized for PrEP in 19 African countries: a review of national guidance.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2025Review
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15 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundHarmonised population-based surveys with recent HIV-1 infection testing algorithms permit pooled cross-sectional estimation of HIV incidence across multiple countries. We aimed to estimate adult HIV-1 incidence rates and number of new infections by sex, age, and subregion in sub-Saharan Africa.
methodsWe analysed data from 13 Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) surveys and two additional population-based surveys done between 2015 and 2019 in 15 sub-Saharan African countries. HIV-seropositive samples from adults aged 15-59 years were tested for recent HIV-1 infection by use of an algorithm consisting of the HIV-1 limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay, HIV-1 viral load, and qualitative detection of antiretroviral agents. Data were pooled across countries; sampling weights were incorporated to represent all adults in the 15 national populations. Analyses accounted for the complex sample designs. HIV incidence rates, incidence rate differences, and number of new annual infections were estimated.
findingsAmong 445 979 adults sampled, 382 had recent HIV-1 infection. The estimated HIV-1 incidence rate was 3·3 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 2·6-4·0) among women and 2·0 per 1000 person-years (1·2-2·7) among men (incidence rate difference 1·3 per 1000 person-years, 95% CI 0·3-2·3). Among adults aged 15-24 years, the incidence rate was higher for women (3·5 per 1000 person-years) than men (1·2 per 1000 person-years; difference 2·3, 95% CI 0·8-3·8), but infection rates were similar between sexes in all other age groups. The HIV-1 incidence rate was 7·4 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 5·0-9·7) in southern sub-Saharan Africa, 2·3 per 1000 person-years (1·7-2·9) in the eastern subregion, and 0·9 per 1000 person-years (0·6-1·2) in the western and central subregion. 689 000 (95% CI 546 000-833 000) new HIV cases were estimated annually among the 265 million susceptible adults (61·6% in women).
interpretationHIV-1 incidence and number of new infections differed by age, sex, and subregion. Approaches for risk stratification are needed to guide comprehensive HIV-1 prevention.
fundingNational Institutes of Health.
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