ArticleMDM policy & practice
Modeling the Natural History and Screening Effects of Colorectal Cancer Using Both Adenoma and Serrated Neoplasia Pathways: The Development, Calibration, and Validation of a Discrete Event Simulation Model.
Article in MDM policy & practice. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 7 citations in OpenAlex.
- CRC-SPIN version 3.0: an updated policy model for colorectal cancer screening that includes the serrated pathway.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2026Article
- Developing and Calibrating a Colorectal Cancer Microsimulation Model for Northern Ireland.PharmacoEconomics · 2026Article
- A Scoping Review on Calibration Methods for Cancer Simulation Models.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025Article
- The impact of adherence on colorectal cancer screening cost-effectiveness: A modeling study.PLoS medicine · 2025Article
- Calculating epidemiological outcomes from simulated longitudinal data.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Cost-effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening under different scenarios of colonoscopy adherence: a microsimulation study.BMJ public health · 2025Article
- Impact of the serrated pathway on the simulated comparative effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening tests.JNCI cancer spectrum · 2024Article
- Would initiating colorectal cancer screening from age of 45 be cost-effective in Germany? An individual-level simulation analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Highlights: This article presents a new discrete event simulation model, DECAS, which models both adenoma-carcinoma and serrated neoplasia pathways for colorectal cancer (CRC) development and CRC screening effects.DECAS is calibrated based on a Bayesian inference method using the data from German screening colonoscopy program, which consists of more than 5 million first-time average-risk participants aged 55 years and older in 2003 to 2014.DECAS is flexible for evaluating various CRC screening strategies and can differentiate screening effects in different parts of the colon.DECAS is validated with large screening sigmoidoscopy and colonoscopy clinical study data and can be further used to evaluate the (cost-)effectiveness of German colorectal cancer screening strategies.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.