Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36697455›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2023

Comparing machine learning approaches to incorporate time-varying covariates in predicting cancer survival time.

Steve Cygu, Hsien Seow, Jonathan Dushoff, Benjamin M Bolker

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Steve CyguSchool of Computational Science and Engineering, Hamilton, McMaster University, 1280 Main St W, Hamilton, ON, L8S 4L8, Canada. cygubicko@gmail.com.
Hsien SeowDepartment of Oncology, Hamilton, McMaster University, 1280 Main St W, Hamilton, ON, L8S 4L8, Canada.
Jonathan DushoffSchool of Computational Science and Engineering, Hamilton, McMaster University, 1280 Main St W, Hamilton, ON, L8S 4L8, Canada.
Benjamin M BolkerSchool of Computational Science and Engineering, Hamilton, McMaster University, 1280 Main St W, Hamilton, ON, L8S 4L8, Canada.

Funding

CIHR 379009CIHR 383402
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The Cox proportional hazards model is commonly used in evaluating risk factors in cancer survival data. The model assumes an additive, linear relationship between the risk factors and the log hazard. However, this assumption may be too simplistic. Further, failure to take time-varying covariates into account, if present, may lower prediction accuracy. In this retrospective, population-based, prognostic study of data from patients diagnosed with cancer from 2008 to 2015 in Ontario, Canada, we applied machine learning-based time-to-event prediction methods and compared their predictive performance in two sets of analyses: (1) yearly-cohort-based time-invariant and (2) fully time-varying covariates analysis. Machine learning-based methods-gradient boosting model (gbm), random survival forest (rsf), elastic net (enet), lasso and ridge-were compared to the traditional Cox proportional hazards (coxph) model and the prior study which used the yearly-cohort-based time-invariant analysis. Using Harrell's C index as our primary measure, we found that using both machine learning techniques and incorporating time-dependent covariates can improve predictive performance. Gradient boosting machine showed the best performance on test data in both time-invariant and time-varying covariates analysis.

Indexed as

NeoplasmsHumansMachine LearningOntarioProportional Hazards ModelsRetrospective Studies

Identifiers

PMID36697455
PMCPMC9877029

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.