Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36697413›Full record

ArticleNature communications2023

Projected health impact of post-discharge malaria chemoprevention among children with severe malarial anaemia in Africa.

Lucy C Okell, Titus K Kwambai, Aggrey Dhabangi, Carole Khairallah, Thandile Nkosi-Gondwe, Peter Winskill, Robert Opoka, Andria Mousa, Melf-Jakob Kühl, Tim C D Lucas and 8 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
3.8field-weighted citation impact, top 7% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 13 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

18 authors at 9 institutions in 7 countries.

Lucy C OkellMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, W2 1PG, UK. l.okell@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0001-7202-6873
Titus K KwambaiCentre for Global Health Research (CGHR), Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI), Kisumu, Kenya.
Aggrey DhabangiCollege of Health Sciences, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda.
Carole KhairallahDepartment of Clinical Sciences, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine (LSTM), Liverpool, UK.
Thandile Nkosi-GondweKamuzu University of Health Sciences, Blantyre, Malawi.
Peter WinskillMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3001-4959
Robert OpokaCollege of Health Sciences, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda.
Andria MousaMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9406-7481
Melf-Jakob KühlSection for Ethics and Health Economics, Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, P.O. Box 7804, 5020, Bergen, Norway.
Tim C D LucasBig Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4694-8107
Joseph D ChallengerMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6029-1733
Richard IdroCollege of Health Sciences, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda.
Daniel J WeissMalaria Atlas Project, Telethon Kids Institute, Perth Children's Hospital, 15 Hospital Avenue, Nedlands, Australia.
Matthew CairnsInternational Statistics and Epidemiology Group, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-1068-9713
Feiko O Ter KuileCentre for Global Health Research (CGHR), Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI), Kisumu, Kenya.ORCID 0000-0003-3663-5617
Kamija PhiriKamuzu University of Health Sciences, Blantyre, Malawi.
Bjarne RobberstadSection for Ethics and Health Economics, Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, P.O. Box 7804, 5020, Bergen, Norway.
Amani Thomas MoriSection for Ethics and Health Economics, Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, P.O. Box 7804, 5020, Bergen, Norway. pax_amani@yahoo.com.ORCID 0000-0002-9968-3635
Imperial College London · GBLiverpool School of Tropical Medicine · GBMakerere University · UGKamuzu Central Hospital · MWUniversity of Bergen · NOLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · GBMuhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences · TZOpen Data Institute · GBThe Kids Research Institute Australia · AU

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/R010161/1Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Children recovering from severe malarial anaemia (SMA) remain at high risk of readmission and death after discharge from hospital. However, a recent trial found that post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PDMC) with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine reduces this risk. We developed a mathematical model describing the daily incidence of uncomplicated and severe malaria requiring readmission among 0-5-year old children after hospitalised SMA. We fitted the model to a multicentre clinical PDMC trial using Bayesian methods and modelled the potential impact of PDMC across malaria-endemic African countries. In the 20 highest-burden countries, we estimate that only 2-5 children need to be given PDMC to prevent one hospitalised malaria episode, and less than 100 to prevent one death. If all hospitalised SMA cases access PDMC in moderate-to-high transmission areas, 38,600 (range 16,900-88,400) malaria-associated readmissions could be prevented annually, depending on access to hospital care. We estimate that recurrent SMA post-discharge constitutes 19% of all SMA episodes in moderate-to-high transmission settings.

Indexed as

AnemiaAntimalarialsMalariaAfricaAftercareBayes TheoremChemopreventionChild, PreschoolClinical Trials as TopicDrug CombinationsHumansInfantInfant, NewbornMulticenter Studies as TopicPatient DischargeAntimalarialsDrug Combinations

Identifiers

PMID36697413
PMCPMC9876927
OpenAlexW4317931204

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.