Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36690473›Full record

Observational studyBMJ quality & safety2023

Predictors and population health outcomes of persistent high GP turnover in English general practices: a retrospective observational study.

Rosa Parisi, Yiu-Shing Lau, Peter Bower, Katherine Checkland, Jill Rubery, Matt Sutton, Sally J Giles, Aneez Esmail, Sharon Spooner, Evangelos Kontopantelis

Abstract readObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in BMJ quality & safety, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Fragmentation by design.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Understanding persistent GP turnover using work and personal characteristics: a retrospective observational study.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2026
    Observational
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Patient characteristics and degrees of discontinuity of care in Danish general practice: a cohort study.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2025
    Article
  8. What makes general practice work: the role of continuity in efficient and sustainable primary care.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2025
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Review
  12. Impact of changes in primary care attachment: a scoping review.Family medicine and community health · 2025
    Article
  13. Article
  14. Understanding access to general practice through the lens of candidacy: a critical review of the literature.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2024
    Review
  15. GP working time and supply, and patient demand in England in 2015-2022: a retrospective study.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2024
    Observational
  16. Article
  17. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Rosa ParisiDivision of Informatics, Imaging & Data Sciences, School of Health Sciences, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK rosa.parisi@manchester.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0002-0968-9153
Yiu-Shing LauHealth Organisation, Policy and Economics (HOPE) Group, Centre for Primary Care & Health Services Research, School of Health Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3915-4168
Peter BowerNIHR School for Primary Care Research, Division of Population Health, Health Services Research and Primary Care, School of Health Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9558-3349
Katherine ChecklandHealth Organisation, Policy and Economics (HOPE) Group, Centre for Primary Care & Health Services Research, School of Health Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
Jill RuberyAlliance Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
Matt SuttonHealth Organisation, Policy and Economics (HOPE) Group, Centre for Primary Care & Health Services Research, School of Health Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-6635-2127
Sally J GilesNIHR Greater Manchester Primary Care Patient Safety Translational Research Centre, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
Aneez EsmailNIHR School for Primary Care Research, Division of Population Health, Health Services Research and Primary Care, School of Health Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
Sharon SpoonerHealth Organisation, Policy and Economics (HOPE) Group, Centre for Primary Care & Health Services Research, School of Health Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6965-3673
Evangelos KontopantelisDivision of Informatics, Imaging & Data Sciences, School of Health Sciences, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6450-5815

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveEnglish primary care faces significant challenges, including 'persistent high turnover' of general practitioners (GPs) in some partnerships. It is unknown whether there are specific predictors of persistent high turnover and whether it is associated with poorer population health outcomes.

designA retrospective observational study.

methodsWe linked workforce data on individual GPs to practice-level data from Hospital Episode Statistics and the GP Patient Survey (2007-2019). We classified practices as experiencing persistent high turnover if more than 10% of GPs changed in at least 3 consecutive years. We used multivariable logistic or linear regression models for panel data with random effects to identify practice characteristics that predicted persistent high turnover and associations of practice outcomes (higher emergency hospital use and patient experience of continuity of care, access to care and overall patient satisfaction) with persistent high turnover.

resultsEach year, 6% of English practices experienced persistent high turnover, with a maximum of 9% (688/7619) in 2014. Larger practices, in more deprived areas and with a higher morbidity burden were more likely to experience persistent high turnover. Persistent high turnover was associated with 1.8 (95% CI 1.5 to 2.1) more emergency hospital attendances per 100 patients, 0.1 (95% CI 0.1 to 0.2) more admissions per 100 patients, 5.2% (95% CI -5.6% to -4.9%) fewer people seeing their preferred doctor, 10.6% (95% CI-11.4% to -9.8%) fewer people reporting obtaining an appointment on the same day and 1.3% (95% CI -1.6% to -1.1%) lower overall satisfaction with the practice.

conclusionsPersistent high turnover is independently linked to indicators of poorer service and health outcomes. Although causality needs to be further investigated, strategies and policies may be needed to both reduce high turnover and support practices facing challenges with high GP turnover when it occurs.

Indexed as

General PracticeGeneral PractitionersPopulation HealthHumansPatient SatisfactionSurveys and QuestionnairesGeneral practiceHealth policyHealth services research

Identifiers

PMID36690473
PMCPMC10313950

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.