ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2023
Non-equilibrium early-warning signals for critical transitions in ecological systems.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Warming-driven rise in soil moisture entropy signals growing instability risk in the Asian Water Tower.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Early Warning Signals in Ecological Time-Series.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Interpretable early warnings using machine learning in an online game-experiment.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- The Equilibrium Conundrum.Ecology letters · 2025Review
- Quantifying Landscape and Flux from Single-Cell Omics: Unraveling the Physical Mechanisms of Cell Function.JACS Au · 2025Review
- Revealing Physical Mechanisms of Spatial Pattern Formation and Switching in Ecosystems via Nonequilibrium Landscape and Flux.Advanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany) · 2025Article
- Hidden high-risk states identification from routine urban traffic.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Clustered warming tolerances and the nonlinear risks of biodiversity loss on a warming planet.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2025Article
- Unraveling the Complexity of Parkinson's Disease: Insights into Pathogenesis and Precision Interventions.Advanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany) · 2024Review
- Understanding underlying physical mechanism reveals early warning indicators and key elements for adaptive infections disease networks.PNAS nexus · 2024Article
- Sediment DNA Records the Critical Transition of Bacterial Communities in the Arid Lake.Microbial ecology · 2024Article
- Quantifying Landscape-Flux via Single-Cell Transcriptomics Uncovers the Underlying Mechanism of Cell Cycle.Advanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany) · 2024Article
- Application of early warning signs to physiological contexts: a comparison of multivariate indices in patients on long-term hemodialysis.Frontiers in network physiology · 2024Article
- Algal Bloom Ties: Spreading Network Inference and Extreme Eco-Environmental Feedback.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Complex systems can exhibit sudden transitions or regime shifts from one stable state to another, typically referred to as critical transitions. It becomes a great challenge to identify a robust warning sufficiently early that action can be taken to avert a regime shift. We employ landscape-flux theory from nonequilibrium statistical mechanics as a general framework to quantify the global stability of ecological systems and provide warning signals for critical transitions. We quantify the average flux as the nonequilibrium driving force and the dynamical origin of the nonequilibrium transition while the entropy production rate as the nonequilibrium thermodynamic cost and thermodynamic origin of the nonequilibrium transition. Average flux, entropy production, nonequilibrium free energy, and time irreversibility quantified by the difference in cross-correlation functions forward and backward in time can serve as early warning signals for critical transitions much earlier than other conventional predictors. We utilize a classical shallow lake model as an exemplar for our early warning prediction. Our proposed method is general and can be readily applied to assess the resilience of many other ecological systems. The early warning signals proposed here can potentially predict critical transitions earlier than established methods and perhaps even sufficiently early to avert catastrophic shifts.
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