Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36686804›Full record

ArticleFrontiers in oncology2022

A nomogram model to individually predict prognosis for esophageal cancer with synchronous pulmonary metastasis.

Xin-Yao Zhang, Qi-Yuan Lv, Chang-Lin Zou

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Article in Frontiers in oncology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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5 · Who and what money

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3 authors.

Xin-Yao ZhangDepartment of Pediatrics, the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Qi-Yuan LvSchool of Public Health and Management, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Chang-Lin ZouDepartment of Radiotherapy, the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Esophageal cancer (EC) is a life-threatening disease worldwide. The prognosis of EC patients with synchronous pulmonary metastasis (PM) is unfavorable, but few tools are available to predict the clinical outcomes and prognosis of these patients. This study aimed to construct a nomogram model for the prognosis of EC patients with synchronous PM. Methods: From the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, we selected 431 EC patients diagnosed with synchronous PM. These cases were randomized into a training cohort (303 patients) and a validation cohort (128 patients). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, along with the Kaplan-Meier method, were used to estimate the prognosis and cancer-specific survival (CSS) among two cohorts. Relative factors of prognosis in the training cohort were selected to develop a nomogram model which was verified on both cohorts by plotting the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves as well as the calibration curves. A risk classification assessment was completed to evaluate the CSS of different groups using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: The nomogram model contained four risk factors, including T stage, bone metastasis, liver metastasis, and chemotherapy. The 6-, 12- and 18-month CSS were 55.1%, 26.7%, and 5.9% and the areas under the ROC curve (AUC) were 0.818, 0.781, and 0.762 in the training cohort. Likewise, the AUC values were 0.731, 0.764, and 0.746 in the validation cohort. The calibration curves showed excellent agreement both in the training and validation cohorts. There was a substantial difference in the CSS between the high-risk and low-risk groups (P<0.01). Conclusion: The nomogram model serves as a predictive tool for EC patients with synchronous PM, which would be utilized to estimate the individualized CSS and guide therapeutic decisions.

Indexed as

cancer-specific survivalchemotherapyesophageal cancer (EC)nomogramprognostic factorspulmonary metastasis

Identifiers

PMID36686804
PMCPMC9848734

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