ArticleScientific reports2023
Predicting mortality and visualizing health care spending by predicted mortality in Danes over age 65.
Article in Scientific reports, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Population-scale network embeddings expose educational divides in network structure related to right-wing populist voting.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Evaluation of SOFA-2 Score Performance Across Demographic Subgroups: An External Validation Study Using MIMIC-IV.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Predicting mortality risk after a fall in older adults using health care spending patterns: a population-based cohort study.Age and ageing · 2023Article
- Sex differences in health care expenditures and mortality after spousal bereavement: A register-based Danish cohort study.PloS one · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Health care expenditure in the last year of life makes up a high proportion of medical spending across the world. This is often framed as waste, but this framing is only meaningful if it is known at the time of treatment who will go on to die. We analyze the distribution of health care spending by predicted mortality for the Danish population over age 65 over the year 2016, with one-year mortality predicted by a machine learning model based on sociodemographics and use of health care services for the two years before entry into follow-up. While a reasonably good model can be built, extremely few individuals have high ex-ante probability of dying, and those with a predicted mortality of more than 50% account for only 2.8% of total health care expenditure. Decedents outspent survivors by a factor of more than ten, but compared to survivors with similar predicted mortality they spent only 2.5 times as much. Our results suggest that while spending in the last year of life is indeed high, this is nearly all spent in situations where there is a reasonable expectation that the patient can survive.
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