ArticlePathogens (Basel, Switzerland)2023
Integration of Epidemiological and Genomic Data to Investigate H5N1 HPAI Outbreaks in Northern Italy in 2021-2022.
Article in Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland), 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Transboundary Spread and Ecological Drivers of HPAI H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b During the 2022-2023 Outbreak in Chile: An Integrated Genomic and Spatial Epidemiology Framework.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2026Article
- Continuous phylogeography reveals shifting environmental drivers of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 spread in Italy, 2016-23.Virus evolution · 2026Article
- Study of the Interface between Wild Bird Populations and Poultry and Their Potential Role in the Spread of Avian Influenza.Microorganisms · 2023Article
- Stakeholders' Perceptions of Biosecurity Implementation in Italian Poultry Farms.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2023Article
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9 authors.
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Abstract
Between October 2021 and April 2022, 317 outbreaks caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viruses were notified in poultry farms in the northeastern Italian regions. The complete genomes of 214 strains were used to estimate the genetic network based on the similarity of the viruses. An exponential random graph model (ERGM) was used to assess the effect of 'at-risk contacts', 'same owners', 'in-bound/out-bound risk windows overlap', 'genetic differences', 'geographic distances', 'same species', and 'poultry company' on the probability of observing a link within the genetic network, which can be interpreted as the potential propagation of the epidemic via lateral spread or a common source of infection. The variables 'same poultry company' (Est. = 0.548, C.I. = [0.179; 0.918]) and 'risk windows overlap' (Est. = 0.339, C.I. = [0.309; 0.368]) were associated with a higher probability of link formation, while the 'genetic differences' (Est. = -0.563, C.I. = [-0.640; -0.486]) and 'geographic distances' (Est. = -0.058, C.I. = [-0.078; -0.038]) indicated a reduced probability. The integration of epidemiological data with genomic analyses allows us to monitor the epidemic evolution and helps to explain the dynamics of lateral spreads casting light on the potential diffusion routes. The 2021-2022 epidemic stresses the need to further strengthen the biosecurity measures, and to encourage the reorganization of the poultry production sector to minimize the impact of future epidemics.
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