ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2023
Bayesian Approach to Disease Risk Evaluation Based on Air Pollution and Weather Conditions.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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4 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
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Abstract
backgroundEnvironmental factors such as meteorological conditions and air pollutants are recognized as important for human health, where mortality and morbidity of certain diseases may be related to abrupt climate change or air pollutant concentration. In the literature, environmental factors have been identified as risk factors for chronic diseases such as ischemic heart disease. However, the likelihood evaluation of the disease occurrence probability due to environmental factors is missing.
methodWe defined people aged 51-90 years who were free from ischemic heart disease (ICD9: 410-414) in 1996-2002 as the susceptible group. A Bayesian conditional logistic regression model based on a case-crossover design was utilized to construct a risk information system and applied to data from three databases in Taiwan: air quality variables from the Environmental Protection Administration (EPA), meteorological parameters from the Central Weather Bureau (CWB), and subject information from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD).
resultsPeople living in different geographic regions in Taiwan were found to have different risk factors; thus, disease risk alert intervals varied in the three regions.
conclusionsDisease risk alert intervals can be a reference for weather bureaus to issue health warnings. With early warnings, susceptible groups can take measures to avoid exacerbation of disease when meteorological conditions and air pollution become hazardous to their health.
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