Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36670203›Full record

ArticleCommunications medicine2023

Serum biomarker-based early detection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas with ensemble learning.

Nuno R Nené, Alexander Ney, Tatiana Nazarenko, Oleg Blyuss, Harvey E Johnston, Harry J Whitwell, Eva Sedlak, Aleksandra Gentry-Maharaj, Sophia Apostolidou, Eithne Costello and 7 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Communications medicine, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
5.8field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 25 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

17 authors at 7 institutions in 2 countries.

Nuno R NenéDepartment of Women's Cancer, EGA Institute for Women's Health, University College London, 84-86 Chenies Mews, London, WC1E 6HU, UK. nuno.nene.10@ucl.ac.uk.
Alexander NeyInstitute for Liver and Digestive Health, University College London, Upper 3rd Floor, Royal Free Campus, Rowland Hill Street, London, NW3 2PF, UK.
Tatiana NazarenkoDepartment of Women's Cancer, EGA Institute for Women's Health, University College London, 84-86 Chenies Mews, London, WC1E 6HU, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4245-7346
Oleg BlyussDepartment of Women's Cancer, EGA Institute for Women's Health, University College London, 84-86 Chenies Mews, London, WC1E 6HU, UK.
Harvey E JohnstonDepartment of Women's Cancer, EGA Institute for Women's Health, University College London, 84-86 Chenies Mews, London, WC1E 6HU, UK.
Harry J WhitwellDepartment of Women's Cancer, EGA Institute for Women's Health, University College London, 84-86 Chenies Mews, London, WC1E 6HU, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8987-4158
Eva SedlakDepartment of Women's Cancer, EGA Institute for Women's Health, University College London, 84-86 Chenies Mews, London, WC1E 6HU, UK.
Aleksandra Gentry-MaharajMRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL, Institute of Clinical Trials and Methodology, UCL, 90 High Holborn, 2nd Floor, London, WC1V 6LJ, UK.
Sophia ApostolidouMRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL, Institute of Clinical Trials and Methodology, UCL, 90 High Holborn, 2nd Floor, London, WC1V 6LJ, UK.
Eithne CostelloDepartment of Molecular and Clinical Cancer Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
William GreenhalfLiverpool Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3GL, UK.
Ian JacobsDepartment of Women's Cancer, EGA Institute for Women's Health, University College London, 84-86 Chenies Mews, London, WC1E 6HU, UK.
Usha MenonMRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL, Institute of Clinical Trials and Methodology, UCL, 90 High Holborn, 2nd Floor, London, WC1V 6LJ, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3708-1732
Justin HsuanInstitute for Liver and Digestive Health, University College London, Upper 3rd Floor, Royal Free Campus, Rowland Hill Street, London, NW3 2PF, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6083-7564
Stephen P PereiraInstitute for Liver and Digestive Health, University College London, Upper 3rd Floor, Royal Free Campus, Rowland Hill Street, London, NW3 2PF, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0821-1809
Alexey ZaikinDepartment of Women's Cancer, EGA Institute for Women's Health, University College London, 84-86 Chenies Mews, London, WC1E 6HU, UK.
John F TimmsDepartment of Women's Cancer, EGA Institute for Women's Health, University College London, 84-86 Chenies Mews, London, WC1E 6HU, UK.
London Women's Clinic · GBMRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL · GBThe Royal Free Hospital · GBUniversity of Liverpool · GBBabraham Institute · GBQueen Mary University of London · GBUNSW Sydney · AU

Funding

Cancer Research UK 26223Cancer Research UK 26881Medical Research Council G0801588Medical Research Council MC_UU_00004/01Pancreatic Cancer UK RG2014_01_PERERIA
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundEarlier detection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is key to improving patient outcomes, as it is mostly detected at advanced stages which are associated with poor survival. Developing non-invasive blood tests for early detection would be an important breakthrough.

methodsThe primary objective of the work presented here is to use a dataset that is prospectively collected, to quantify a set of cancer-associated proteins and construct multi-marker models with the capacity to predict PDAC years before diagnosis. The data used is part of a nested case-control study within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening and is comprised of 218 samples, collected from a total of 143 post-menopausal women who were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within 70 months after sample collection, and 249 matched non-cancer controls. We develop a stacked ensemble modelling technique to achieve robustness in predictions and, therefore, improve performance in newly collected datasets.

resultsHere we show that with ensemble learning we can predict PDAC status with an AUC of 0.91 (95% CI 0.75-1.0), sensitivity of 92% (95% CI 0.54-1.0) at 90% specificity, up to 1 year prior to diagnosis, and at an AUC of 0.85 (95% CI 0.74-0.93) up to 2 years prior to diagnosis (sensitivity of 61%, 95% CI 0.17-0.83, at 90% specificity).

conclusionsThe ensemble modelling strategy explored here outperforms considerably biomarker combinations cited in the literature. Further developments in the selection of classifiers balancing performance and heterogeneity should further enhance the predictive capacity of the method.

Identifiers

PMID36670203
PMCPMC9860022
OpenAlexW4317566635

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.