ArticleTropical medicine and infectious disease2022
A Dynamic Compartmental Model to Explore the Optimal Strategy of Varicella Vaccination: An Epidemiological Study in Jiangsu Province, China.
Article in Tropical medicine and infectious disease, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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5 citing papers in PubMed, 5 citations in OpenAlex.
- Effectiveness of a 2-dose varicella vaccination program in Changzhou, China, during the transitional period (2017-2022): a registry-based case-cohort study.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Analysis of antibody dynamics in Chinese children aged 1-3 years after single-dose varicella vaccination: A 42 months prospective study.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2024Article
- Varicella vaccine effectiveness evaluation in Wuxi, China: A retrospective cohort study.Epidemiology and infection · 2024Article
- Response Strategies for Emerging Infectious Diseases: More Efforts Are Needed.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Article
- Pre-exposure prophylaxis uptake for high-risk men who have sex with men in China: a multi-city cross-sectional survey.AIDS research and therapy · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
14 authors at 5 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Varicella (chickenpox) is highly contagious among children and frequently breaks out in schools. In this study, we developed a dynamic compartment model to explore the optimal schedule for varicella vaccination in Jiangsu Province, China. A susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model was proposed to simulate the transmission of varicella in different age groups. The basic reproduction number was computed by the kinetic model, and the impact of three prevention factors was assessed through the global sensitivity analysis. Finally, the effect of various vaccination scenarios was qualitatively evaluated by numerical simulation. The estimated basic reproduction number was 1.831 ± 0.078, and the greatest contributor was the 5-10 year-old group (0.747 ± 0.042, 40.80%). Sensitivity analysis indicated that there was a strong negative correlation between the second dose vaccination coverage rate and basic reproduction number. In addition, we qualitatively found that the incidence would significantly decrease as the second dose vaccine coverage expands. The results suggest that two-dose varicella vaccination should be mandatory, and the optimal age of second dose vaccination is the 5-10 year-old group. Optimal vaccination time, wide vaccine coverage along with other measures, could enhance the effectiveness of prevention and control of varicella in China.
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