ArticlePloS one2023
Shifts in age pattern, timing of childbearing and trend in fertility level across six regions of Nigeria: Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys from 2003-2018.
Article in PloS one, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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11 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- New multidimensional scale of men's gender egalitarian attitudes and its socio-demographic correlates in Nigeria: results from a psychometric analysis.BMJ public health · 2026Article
- Exploring the nexus of women's empowerment and delayed childbearing: implications for Nigeria's demographic transition.Reproductive health · 2025Article
- Decomposing the effect of women's educational status on fertility across the six geo-political zones in Nigeria: 2003-2018.BMC women's health · 2025Article
- Trends and risk indicators for high fertility among Nigerian female youth aged 15-29 years: A pooled data analysis.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Inequality gaps in modern contraceptive use and associated factors among women of reproductive age in Nigeria between 2003 and 2018.BMC women's health · 2024Article
- Determinants of Utilization of Antenatal Care Services Among Women of Childbearing Age in Jigawa State, Nigeria.International journal of public health · 2024Article
- Multiple high-risk fertility behaviours and children under five mortality survivors among ever-married women of reproductive age in Nigeria.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2023Article
- Spatial distribution and multilevel analysis of factors associated with long-acting reversible contraceptive use among sexually active women of reproductive age in Nigeria.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2023Article
- A multi-level analysis of prevalence and factors associated with caesarean section in Nigeria.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Predictors of High Fertility in Nigerian Women Aged 40-49: Insights from Machine Learning and Explainable Artificial Intelligence Using the 2024 Nigeria Demographic Health Survey.Women's health reports (New Rochelle, N.Y.)Article
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5 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundNigeria's population is projected to increase from 200 million in 2019 to 450 million in 2050 if the fertility level remains at the current level. Thus, we examined the shifts in the age pattern of fertility, timing of childbearing and trend in fertility levels from 2003 and 2018 across six regions of Nigeria.
methodThis study utilised the 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey datasets. Each survey was a cross-sectional population-based design, and a two-stage cluster sampling technique was used to select women aged 15-49 years. The changes in the timing of childbearing were examined by calculating the corresponding mean ages at the birth of different birth orders for each birth order separately to adjust the Quantum effect for births. The Gompertz Relational Model was used to examine the age pattern of fertility and refined fertility level.
resultIn Nigeria, it was observed that there was a minimal decline in mean children ever born (CEB) between 2003 and 2018 across all maternal age groups except aged 20-24 years. The pattern of mean CEB by the age of mothers was the same across the Nigeria regions except in North West. Nigeria's mean number of CEB to women aged 40-49 in 2003, 2008, 2013 and 2018 surveys was 6.7, 6.6, 6.3 and 6.1, respectively. The mean age (years) at first birth marginally increased from 21.3 in 2003 to 22.5 in 2018. In 2003, the mean age at first birth was highest in South East (24.3) and lowest in North East (19.4); while South West had the highest (24.4) and both North East and North West had the lowest (20.2) in 2018. Similar age patterns of fertility existed between 2003 and 2018 across the regions. Nigeria's estimated total fertility level for 2003, 2008, 2013 and 2018 was 6.1, 6.1, 5.9 and 5.7, respectively.
conclusionThe findings showed a reducing but slow fertility declines in Nigeria. The decline varied substantially across the regions. For a downward change in the level of fertility, policies that will constrict the spread of fertility distribution across the region in Nigeria must urgently be put in place.
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