Long-term spatiotemporal patterns in the number of colonies and honey production in Mexico.

Honey bee decline is currently one of the world's most serious environmental issues, and scientists, governments, and producers have generated interest in understanding its causes and consequences in honey production and food supply. Mexico is one of the world's top honey producers, however, the honey bee population's status has not been documented to date. Based on 32 years of data from beekeeping, we make a country-level assessment of honey bee colony trends in Mexico. We use generalized additive mixed models to measure the associations between the percent change in honey bee hives and the percent change in honey yield per hive in relation to land-use, climate, and socioeconomic conditions. Despite the fact that the average annual yield per hive increased from 1980 to 2012, we detected a significant decline in the percent change in the number of honey bee hives across the time period studied. We also found a relationship between climatic conditions and agricultural land use, with agriculture increases and high temperatures producing a decrease in the percent change in honey yield. We found a relationship between a reduction in the temperature range (the difference between maximum and minimum temperatures) and a decrease in the percent change in the number of hives, while socioeconomic factors related to poverty levels have an impact on the number of hives and honey yields. Although long-term declines in hive numbers are not correlated with poverty levels, socioeconomic factors in states with high and medium poverty levels limit the increase in honey yield per hive. These results provide evidence that land-use changes, unfavorable climatic conditions, political, and socioeconomic factors are partially responsible for the reductions in the percent change in honey bee hives in Mexico.