Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36650162›Full record

ArticleNature communications2023

Rapid transmission and tight bottlenecks constrain the evolution of highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Emily E Bendall, Amy P Callear, Amy Getz, Kendra Goforth, Drew Edwards, Arnold S Monto, Emily T Martin, Adam S Lauring

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 42 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
42citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
12.0field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

42 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 62 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Emily E BendallDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-2524-088X
Amy P CallearDepartment of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Amy GetzDepartment of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Kendra GoforthDepartment of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Drew EdwardsDepartment of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Arnold S MontoDepartment of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Emily T MartinDepartment of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Adam S LauringDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA. alauring@med.umich.edu.ORCID 0000-0003-2906-8335
University of Michigan · US

Funding

NIAID Centers of Excellence for Influenza Research and Response: Universal Influenza Vaccine Research Activities75N93021C00015 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI HENSLEY, SCOTT · 2021 to 2025
$50.7M
US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness NetworkU01IP001034 · IP · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI MONTO, ARNOLD S · 2016 to 2020
$10.0M
Evolution and Transmission of Influenza Virus in Natural Human InfectionR01AI148371 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI LAURING, ADAM, MARTIN, EMILY TOTH · 2020 to 2024
$3.6M
NCIRD CDC HHS U01 IP001034NIAID NIH HHS 75N93021C00015NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI148371
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Transmission bottlenecks limit the spread of novel mutations and reduce the efficiency of selection along a transmission chain. While increased force of infection, receptor binding, or immune evasion may influence bottleneck size, the relationship between transmissibility and the transmission bottleneck is unclear. Here we compare the transmission bottleneck of non-VOC SARS-CoV-2 lineages to those of Alpha, Delta, and Omicron. We sequenced viruses from 168 individuals in 65 households. Most virus populations had 0-1 single nucleotide variants (iSNV). From 64 transmission pairs with detectable iSNV, we identify a per clade bottleneck of 1 (95% CI 1-1) for Alpha, Delta, and Omicron and 2 (95% CI 2-2) for non-VOC. These tight bottlenecks reflect the low diversity at the time of transmission, which may be more pronounced in rapidly transmissible variants. Tight bottlenecks will limit the development of highly mutated VOC in transmission chains, adding to the evidence that selection over prolonged infections may drive their evolution.

Indexed as

COVID-19HumansImmune EvasionSARS-CoV-2

Identifiers

PMID36650162
PMCPMC9844183
OpenAlexW4317039763

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.