Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36649146›Full record

ArticleCancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology2023

Incorporating Alternative Polygenic Risk Scores into the BOADICEA Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Model.

Nasim Mavaddat, Lorenzo Ficorella, Tim Carver, Andrew Lee, Alex P Cunningham, Michael Lush, Joe Dennis, Marc Tischkowitz, Kate Downes, Donglei Hu and 15 more

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 28 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
28citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

28 citing papers in PubMed.

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  3. Polygenic risk scores in cancer.Medizinische Genetik : Mitteilungsblatt des Berufsverbandes Medizinische Genetik e.V · 2026
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  18. Correction: Incorporating Alternative Polygenic Risk Scores into the BOADICEA Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Model.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2025
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

25 authors.

Nasim MavaddatCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-0307-055X
Lorenzo FicorellaCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-0577-1571
Tim CarverCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-1508-3091
Andrew LeeCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-0677-0252
Alex P CunninghamCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-3737-9611
Michael LushCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0001-5945-3440
Joe DennisCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-4591-1214
Marc TischkowitzDepartment of Medical Genetics and National Institute for Health Research, Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, The University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-7880-0628
Kate DownesCambridge Genomics Laboratory, Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-0366-1579
Donglei HuDivision of General Internal Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California.ORCID 0000-0002-0351-001X
Eric HahnenCenter for Familial Breast and Ovarian Cancer, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital Cologne, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-1152-8367
Rita K SchmutzlerCenter for Familial Breast and Ovarian Cancer, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital Cologne, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.ORCID 0000-0001-8160-4348
Tracy L StockleyAdvanced Molecular Diagnostics Laboratory, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-4476-9722
Gregory S DownsAdvanced Molecular Diagnostics Laboratory, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-5622-9010
Tong ZhangAdvanced Molecular Diagnostics Laboratory, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.ORCID 0000-0001-7108-0974
Anna M ChiarelliDalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-7382-513X
Stig E BojesenCopenhagen General Population Study, Herlev and Gentofte Hospital, Copenhagen University Hospital, Herlev, Denmark.ORCID 0000-0002-4061-4133
Cong LiuDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, New York.ORCID 0000-0001-6024-3037
Wendy K ChungDepartments of Pediatrics and Medicine, Columbia University, New York, New York.ORCID 0000-0003-3438-5685
Monica PardoHereditary Cancer Genetics Group, Vall d'Hebron Institut d'Oncologia, Barcelona, Spain.ORCID 0000-0003-2015-9564
Lidia FeliubadalóHereditary Cancer Program, Catalan Institute of Oncology (ICO), L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Spain.ORCID 0000-0002-1736-0112
Judith BalmañaHereditary Cancer Genetics Group, Vall d'Hebron Institut d'Oncologia, Barcelona, Spain.ORCID 0000-0002-0762-6415
Jacques SimardDepartment of Molecular Medicine, Université Laval and CHU de Québec-Université Laval Research Center, Québec, Canada.ORCID 0000-0001-6906-3390
Antonis C AntoniouCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0001-9223-3116
Douglas F EastonCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-2444-3247

Funding

Epidemiologic StudiesU19CA148065 · NCI · HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI AHSAN, HABIBUL, BRUGGE, JOAN SIEFERT · 2010 to 2014
$10.6M
Cancer Research UK 16563Cancer Research UK A16563Cancer Research UK A31523Department of Health IS-BRC-1215-20014NCI NIH HHS U19 CA148065
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe multifactorial risk prediction model BOADICEA enables identification of women at higher or lower risk of developing breast cancer. BOADICEA models genetic susceptibility in terms of the effects of rare variants in breast cancer susceptibility genes and a polygenic component, decomposed into an unmeasured and a measured component - the polygenic risk score (PRS). The current version was developed using a 313 SNP PRS. Here, we evaluated approaches to incorporating this PRS and alternative PRS in BOADICEA.

methodsThe mean, SD, and proportion of the overall polygenic component explained by the PRS (α2) need to be estimated. $\alpha $ was estimated using logistic regression, where the age-specific log-OR is constrained to be a function of the age-dependent polygenic relative risk in BOADICEA; and using a retrospective likelihood (RL) approach that models, in addition, the unmeasured polygenic component.

resultsParameters were computed for 11 PRS, including 6 variations of the 313 SNP PRS used in clinical trials and implementation studies. The logistic regression approach underestimates $\alpha $, as compared with the RL estimates. The RL $\alpha $ estimates were very close to those obtained by assuming proportionality to the OR per 1 SD, with the constant of proportionality estimated using the 313 SNP PRS. Small variations in the SNPs included in the PRS can lead to large differences in the mean.

conclusionsBOADICEA can be readily adapted to different PRS in a manner that maintains consistency of the model. IMPACT: : The methods described facilitate comprehensive breast cancer risk assessment.

Indexed as

Breast NeoplasmsFemaleGenetic Predisposition to DiseaseHumansPolymorphism, Single NucleotideRetrospective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk Factors

Identifiers

PMID36649146
PMCPMC9986688

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.