Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36647586›Full record

ArticleDeutsches Arzteblatt international2023

Spatio-Temporal Trends in the Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in Germany.

Thaddäus Tönnies, Annika Hoyer, Ralph Brinks, Oliver Kuss, Ramona Hering, Mandy Schulz

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Deutsches Arzteblatt international, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Thaddäus TönniesGerman Diabetes Center (DDZ), Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at the Heinrich-Heine University, Düsseldorf, Institute for Biometrics and Epidemiology, Düsseldorf, Germany; Biostatistics and Medical Biometry, Medical School OWL, Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany; Chair for Medical Biometry and Epidemiology (MBE), Witten/Herdecke University, Faculty of Health/School of Medicine, Witten, Germany; German Center for Diabetes Research, Partner Düsseldorf, München-Neuherberg, Germany; Centre for Health and Society, Medical Faculty and University Hospital of Düsseldorf, Heinrich-Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany; Central Research Institute for Ambulatory Health Care in Germany, Department of Data Science and Healthcare Analyses, Berlin, Germany.
Annika Hoyer
Ralph Brinks
Oliver Kuss
Ramona Hering
Mandy Schulz

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThere are no data on recent trends in the incidence rate of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Germany. The aim of this study was to determine the sex-, age-, and region-specific trends in the T2D incidence rate between 2014 and 2019.

methodsBased on nationwide data from statutorily insured persons in Germany, negative binomial regression models were used to analyze age- and sex-specific trends in the T2D incidence rate. Age- and sex-adjusted trends were calculated for 401 administrative districts using a Bayesian spatio-temporal regression model.

resultsDuring the period concerned, approximately 450 000 new cases of T2D were observed each year among some 63 million persons. Taking all age groups together, the incidence rate decreased in both women and men, from 6.9 (95% confidence interval [6.7; 7.0]) and 8.4 [8.2; 8.6] respectively per 1000 persons in 2014 to 6.1 [5.9; 6.3] and 7.7 [7.5; 8.0] per 1000 persons in 2019. This corresponds to an annual reduction of 2.4% [1.5; 3.2] for women and 1.7% [0.8; 2.5] for men. The incidence rate increased in the age group 20-39 years. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence rate decreased in almost all districts, although regional differences persisted.

conclusionThe T2D incidence rate should be closely monitored to see whether the decreasing trend continues. One must not forget that the prevalence can rise despite decreasing incidence. For this reason, the findings do not necessarily mean a decrease in the disease burden of T2D and the associated demand on healthcare resources.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2AdultBayes TheoremFemaleGermanyHumansIncidenceMalePrevalenceYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID36647586
PMCPMC10213473

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.