ArticleBMC medicine2023
Real-time forecasting the trajectory of monkeypox outbreaks at the national and global levels, July-October 2022.
Article in BMC medicine, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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17 citing papers in PubMed, 28 citations in OpenAlex.
- Time series modelling and forecasting of mpox incidence and mortality in Nigeria.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- The future of HIV: challenges in meeting the 2030 Ending the HIV Epidemic in the US (EHE) reduction goal.AIDS (London, England) · 2025Article
- Risk perception and mpox vaccine acceptability among people living with HIV in northern Nigeria.Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · 2025Article
- An epidemiological model of monkeypox: model prediction and control application.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Explainable AI for Symptom-Based Detection of Monkeypox: a machine learning approach.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Nowcasting to Monitor Real-Time Mpox Trends During the 2022 Outbreak in New York City: Evaluation Using Reportable Disease Data Stratified by Race or Ethnicity.Online journal of public health informatics · 2025Article
- The Future of HIV: Challenges in meeting the 2030medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Existence and stability of equilibria in infectious disease dynamics with behavioral feedback.Physical review. E · 2025Article
- StatModPredict: A user-friendly R-Shiny interface for fitting and forecasting with statistical models.PloS one · 2025Article
- Human monkeypox disease prediction using novel modified restricted Boltzmann machine-based equilibrium optimizer.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Evaluating the forecasting performance of ensemble sub-epidemic frameworks and other time series models for the 2022-2023 mpox epidemic.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Article
- Stabilizing the return to normal behavior in an epidemic.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Retrospective evaluation of short-term forecast performance of ensemble sub-epidemic frameworks and other time-series models: The 2022-2023 mpox outbreak across multiple geographical scales, July 14medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Short-Term Forecasting of Monkeypox Cases Using a Novel Filtering and Combining Technique.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Data-driven estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number and growth rates for the 2022 monkeypox outbreak in Europe.PloS one · 2023Article
- Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundBeginning May 7, 2022, multiple nations reported an unprecedented surge in monkeypox cases. Unlike past outbreaks, differences in affected populations, transmission mode, and clinical characteristics have been noted. With the existing uncertainties of the outbreak, real-time short-term forecasting can guide and evaluate the effectiveness of public health measures.
methodsWe obtained publicly available data on confirmed weekly cases of monkeypox at the global level and for seven countries (with the highest burden of disease at the time this study was initiated) from the Our World in Data (OWID) GitHub repository and CDC website. We generated short-term forecasts of new cases of monkeypox across the study areas using an ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework based on weekly cases using 10-week calibration periods. We report and assess the weekly forecasts with quantified uncertainty from the top-ranked, second-ranked, and ensemble sub-epidemic models. Overall, we conducted 324 weekly sequential 4-week ahead forecasts across the models from the week of July 28th, 2022, to the week of October 13th, 2022.
resultsThe last 10 of 12 forecasting periods (starting the week of August 11th, 2022) show either a plateauing or declining trend of monkeypox cases for all models and areas of study. According to our latest 4-week ahead forecast from the top-ranked model, a total of 6232 (95% PI 487.8, 12,468.0) cases could be added globally from the week of 10/20/2022 to the week of 11/10/2022. At the country level, the top-ranked model predicts that the USA will report the highest cumulative number of new cases for the 4-week forecasts (median based on OWID data: 1806 (95% PI 0.0, 5544.5)). The top-ranked and weighted ensemble models outperformed all other models in short-term forecasts.
conclusionsOur top-ranked model consistently predicted a decreasing trend in monkeypox cases on the global and country-specific scale during the last ten sequential forecasting periods. Our findings reflect the potential impact of increased immunity, and behavioral modification among high-risk populations.
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