ArticleApplied mathematical modelling2023
Heterogeneity is a key factor describing the initial outbreak of COVID-19.
Article in Applied mathematical modelling, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Integrating viral kinetics and population spread in a one health framework to explain variant-specific epidemic dynamics.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- COVID-19 transmission dynamics: age-specific patterns and super spreaders in South Korea.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Article
- Development of an Early-Phase Local Model for Pandemics Using Public Health Data: Application to the COVID-19 Pandemic.AMIA ... Annual Symposium proceedings. AMIA Symposium · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
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Abstract
Assessing the transmission potential of emerging infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, is crucial for implementing prompt and effective intervention policies. The basic reproduction number is widely used to measure the severity of the early stages of disease outbreaks. The basic reproduction number of standard ordinary differential equation models is computed for homogeneous contact patterns; however, realistic contact patterns are far from homogeneous, specifically during the early stages of disease transmission. Heterogeneity of contact patterns can lead to superspreading events that show a significantly high level of heterogeneity in generating secondary infections. This is primarily due to the large variance in the contact patterns of complex human behaviours. Hence, in this work, we investigate the impacts of heterogeneity in contact patterns on the basic reproduction number by developing two distinct model frameworks: 1) an SEIR-Erlang ordinary differential equation model and 2) an SEIR stochastic agent-based model. Furthermore, we estimated the transmission probability of both models in the context of COVID-19 in South Korea. Our results highlighted the importance of heterogeneity in contact patterns and indicated that there should be more information than one quantity (the basic reproduction number as the mean quantity), such as a degree-specific basic reproduction number in the distributional sense when the contact pattern is highly heterogeneous.
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