Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36636295›Full record

ArticleEClinicalMedicine2023

Predictive performance of interferon-gamma release assays and the tuberculin skin test for incident tuberculosis: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

Yohhei Hamada, Rishi K Gupta, Matteo Quartagno, Abbie Izzard, Carlos Acuna-Villaorduna, Neus Altet, Roland Diel, Jose Dominguez, Sian Floyd, Amita Gupta and 24 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in EClinicalMedicine, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 40 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
40citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

40 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Shorter Antitubercular Regimens Versus 9 Months of Isoniazid for Latent Tuberculosis in Children: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026
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  13. Peripheral cytokine distinguish recent fromFrontiers in microbiology · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

34 authors.

Yohhei HamadaInstitute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
Rishi K GuptaInstitute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
Matteo QuartagnoMRC Clinical Trials Unit, Institute of Clinical Trials and Methodology, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
Abbie IzzardInstitute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
Carlos Acuna-VillaordunaSection of Infectious Diseases, Boston University Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA.
Neus AltetUnitat de Tuberculosis, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron-Drassanes, Barcelona, Spain.
Roland DielInstitute for Epidemiology, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein, Campus Kiel, Kiel, Germany.
Jose DominguezInstitut d'Investigació Germans Trias i Pujol, CIBER Enfermedades Respiratorias, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
Sian FloydDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
Amita GuptaJohns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Helena HuergaEpicentre, Paris, France.
Edward C Jones-LópezDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Keck School of Medicine of USC, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Aarti KinikarByramjee Jeejeebhoy Government Medical College and Sassoon General Hospital, Pune, Maharashtra, India.
Christoph LangeDivision of Clinical Infectious Diseases, Research Center Borstel, Borstel, Germany.
Frank van LethTuberculosis Network European Trials Group (TBnet), Borstel, Germany.
Qiao LiuDepartment of Chronic Communicable Disease, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, PR China.
Wei LuDepartment of Chronic Communicable Disease, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, PR China.
Peng LuDepartment of Chronic Communicable Disease, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, PR China.
Irene Latorre RuedaInstitut d'Investigació Germans Trias i Pujol, CIBER Enfermedades Respiratorias, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
Leonardo MartinezDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA.
Stanley Kimbung MbandiSouth African Tuberculosis Vaccine Initiative, Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, and Division of Immunology, Department of Pathology, University of Cape Town, South Africa, Western Cape, South Africa.
Laura MuñozDepartment of Clinical Sciences, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
Elisabeth Sánchez PadillaEpicentre, Paris, France.
Mandar ParadkarByramjee Jeejeebhoy Government Medical College-Johns Hopkins University Clinical Research Site, Pune, Maharashtra, India.
Thomas ScribaSouth African Tuberculosis Vaccine Initiative, Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, and Division of Immunology, Department of Pathology, University of Cape Town, South Africa, Western Cape, South Africa.
Martina SesterTuberculosis Network European Trials Group (TBnet), Borstel, Germany.
Kwame ShanaubeZambart, Lusaka, Zambia.
Surendra K SharmaDepartment of Internal Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India.
Rosa SlootDesmond Tutu TB Centre, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa.
Giovanni SotgiuTuberculosis Network European Trials Group (TBnet), Borstel, Germany.
Kannan ThiruvengadamNational Institute for Research in Tuberculosis, Indian Council of Medical Research, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India.
Richa VashishthaDepartment of Internal Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India.
Ibrahim AbubakarInstitute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
Molebogeng X RangakaInstitute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom.

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_UU_00004/04Medical Research Council MC_UU_00004/07Medical Research Council MC_UU_12023/27
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Evidence on the comparative performance of purified protein derivative tuberculin skin tests (TST) and interferon-gamma release assays (IGRA) for predicting incident active tuberculosis (TB) remains conflicting. We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis to directly compare the predictive performance for incident TB disease between TST and IGRA to inform policy. Methods: We searched Medline and Embase from 1 January 2002 to 4 September 2020, and studies that were included in previous systematic reviews. We included prospective longitudinal studies in which participants received both TST and IGRA and estimated performance as hazard ratios (HR) for the development of all diagnoses of TB in participants with dichotomised positive test results compared to negative results, using different thresholds of positivity for TST. Secondary analyses included an evaluation of the impact of background TB incidence. We also estimated the sensitivity and specificity for predicting TB. We explored heterogeneity through pre-defined sub-group analyses (e.g. country-level TB incidence). Publication bias was assessed using funnel plots and Egger's test. This review is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020205667. Findings: We obtained data from 13 studies out of 40 that were considered eligible (N = 32,034 participants: 36% from countries with TB incidence rate ≥100 per 100,000 population). All reported data on TST and QuantiFERON Gold in-Tube (QFT-GIT). The point estimate for the TST was highest with higher cut-offs for positivity and particularly when stratified by bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccine (BCG) status (15 mm if BCG vaccinated and 5 mm if not [TST Interpretation: IGRA appears to have higher predictive performance than the TST in low TB incidence countries, but the difference was driven by a single study. Any advantage in clinical performance may be small, given the numerically similar positive and negative predictive values. Both IGRA and TST had lower performance in countries with high TB incidence. Test choice should be contextual and made considering operational and likely clinical impact of test results. Funding: YH, IA, and MXR were supported by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), United Kingdom (RP-PG-0217-20009). MQ was supported by the Medical Research Council [MC_UU_00004/07].

Indexed as

IGRALTBIPreventionProphylaxisTuberculin skin test

Identifiers

PMID36636295
PMCPMC9829704

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.