Derivation of a Risk Score (REVEAL-ECHO) Based on Echocardiographic Parameters of Patients With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension.

backgroundMultiparametric risk assessment tools determine mortality risk in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) by combining invasive and noninvasive variables so management strategies can be tailored to individuals. RESEARCH QUESTION: Can a risk score based on common echocardiographic parameters risk-stratify patients with PAH? STUDY DESIGN AND

methodsA Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term PAH Disease Management (REVEAL) echocardiographic risk score (REVEAL-ECHO) was derived using retrospective echocardiographic data from 2,400 adult patients with PAH enrolled in the REVEAL registry database. A stepwise Cox regression model identified echocardiographic parameters significantly predictive of survival. Values were assigned to each selected parameter based on survival at 12 months' follow-up (Kaplan-Meier estimates). The REVEAL-ECHO risk score was the sum of individual values. Patients were categorized as having low, intermediate, or high risk based on Kaplan-Meier-predicted 12-month survival.

resultsThe risk score included four echocardiographic parameters-right ventricular (RV) chamber enlargement, reduced RV systolic function, tricuspid regurgitation severity, and pericardial effusion-and accounted for PAH etiology. Higher REVEAL-ECHO risk scores signaled lower probability of 12-month survival. Statistically significant separation of mortality risk was observed among the risk strata: intermediate vs low (hazard ratio [HR], 1.43; 95% CI, 1.17-1.75; P = .0004) and high vs low (HR, 2.60; 95% CI, 2.19-3.10; P < .0001). Augmentation of the REVEAL Lite 2 risk calculator with REVEAL-ECHO risk scores achieved separation of REVEAL Lite 2 into four risk groups and identified a subgroup of patients with a low REVEAL Lite 2 risk score who were at higher risk (intermediate-low risk) and a subgroup of patients with an intermediate REVEAL Lite 2 risk score who also were at higher risk (intermediate-high risk).

interpretationA REVEAL-ECHO risk score, derived using four echocardiographic parameters, may discriminate risk further when used as an adjunct to current risk assessment scores. Further validation is required.