ArticleComputers in biology and medicine2023
More or less deadly? A mathematical model that predicts SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary direction.
Article in Computers in biology and medicine, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- SIMPLICITY is an agent-based, multi-scale mathematical model to study SARS-CoV-2 intra- and between-host evolution.Communications biology · 2026Article
- A mathematical model simulating the adaptive immune response in various vaccines and vaccination strategies.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- A prediction of mutations in infectious viruses using artificial intelligence.Genomics & informatics · 2024Article
- Bioinformatic analysis of defective viral genomes in SARS-CoV-2 and its impact on population infection characteristics.Frontiers in immunology · 2024Article
- Variation and evolution analysis of SARS-CoV-2 using self-game sequence optimization.Frontiers in microbiology · 2024Article
- An agent-based model with antibody dynamics information in COVID-19 epidemic simulation.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Antibody Dynamics Simulation-A Mathematical Exploration of Clonal Deletion and Somatic Hypermutation.Biomedicines · 2023Article
- A Novel Mathematical Model That Predicts the Protection Time of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies.Viruses · 2023Article
- Statistical analysis supports UTR (untranslated region) deletion theory in SARS-CoV-2.Virulence · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
SARS-CoV-2 has caused tremendous deaths globally. It is of great value to predict the evolutionary direction of SARS-CoV-2. In this paper, we proposed a novel mathematical model that could predict the evolutionary trend of SARS-CoV-2. We focus on the mutational effects on viral assembly capacity. A robust coarse-grained mathematical model is constructed to simulate the virus dynamics in the host body. Both virulence and transmissibility can be quantified in this model. A delicate equilibrium point that optimizes the transmissibility can be numerically obtained. Based on this model, the virulence of SARS-CoV-2 might further decrease, accompanied by an enhancement of transmissibility. However, this trend is not continuous; its virulence will not disappear but remains at a relatively stable range. A virus assembly model which simulates the virus packing process is also proposed. It can be explained why a few mutations would lead to a significant divergence in clinical performance, both in the overall particle formation quantity and virulence. This research provides a novel mathematical attempt to elucidate the evolutionary driving force in RNA virus evolution.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.