ArticleScience advances2023
Understanding uncertainties in contemporary and future extreme wave events for broad-scale impact and adaptation planning.
Article in Science advances, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Challenges and opportunities in predicting coastal total water levels from empirical runup models: Insights from major storms in Southeast Australia.Cambridge prisms. Coastal futures · 2026Article
- The role of offshore wind and solar PV resources in global low-carbon transition.Science advances · 2025Article
- Article
- Global changes in extreme tropical cyclone wave heights under projected future climate conditions.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Historical global ocean wave data simulated with CMIP6 anthropogenic and natural forcings.Scientific data · 2023Article
- On the formation of coastal rogue waves in water of variable depth.Cambridge prisms. Coastal futures · 2023Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Understanding uncertainties in extreme wind-wave events is essential for offshore/coastal risk and adaptation estimates. Despite this, uncertainties in contemporary extreme wave events have not been assessed, and projections are still limited. Here, we quantify, at global scale, the uncertainties in contemporary extreme wave estimates across an ensemble of widely used global wave reanalyses/hindcasts supported by observations. We find that contemporary uncertainties in 50-year return period wave heights ([Formula: see text]) reach (on average) ~2.5 m in regions adjacent to coastlines and are primarily driven by atmospheric forcing. Furthermore, we show that uncertainties in contemporary [Formula: see text] estimates dominate projected 21st-century changes in [Formula: see text] across ~80% of global ocean and coastlines. When translated into broad-scale coastal risk analysis, these uncertainties are comparable to those from storm surges and projected sea level rise. Thus, uncertainties in contemporary extreme wave events need to be combined with those of projections to fully assess potential impacts.
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Registered trials
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