ArticleThe Journal of infectious diseases2023
The Origins and Risk Factors for Serotype-2 Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus Emergences in Africa During 2016-2019.
Article in The Journal of infectious diseases, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Review of Poliovirus Transmission and Economic Modeling to Support Global Polio Eradication: 2020-2024.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Pooled it
- Safety and immunogenicity of novel live attenuated type 1 and type 3 oral poliomyelitis vaccines in healthy adults in the USA: a first-in-human, observer-masked, multicentre, phase 1 randomised controlled trial.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2025Trial
- The African Polio Laboratory Network: Advancing Regional Poliovirus Detection, Genomic Surveillance, and Eradication.Vaccines · 2026Article
- Historical and current spatiotemporal patterns of wild and vaccine-derived poliovirus spread.Nature microbiology · 2025Article
- Global Impact of Mass Vaccination Campaigns on Circulating Type 2 Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus Outbreaks: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Monitoring the Risk of Type-2 Circulating Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus Emergence During Roll-Out of Type-2 Novel Oral Polio Vaccine.Vaccines · 2024Article
- Novel Oral Poliovirus Vaccine 2 Safety Evaluation during Nationwide Supplemental Immunization Activity, Uganda, 2022.Emerging infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Circulating vaccine derived polio virus type 2 outbreak and response in Yemen, 2021-2022, a retrospective descriptive analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Immune persistence after different polio sequential immunization schedules in Chinese infants.NPJ vaccines · 2024Article
- One billion doses and WHO prequalification of nOPV2: Implications for the global polio situation and beyond.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Vaccine Derived Poliovirus (VDPV).Le infezioni in medicina · 2023Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV2) can revert to regain wild-type neurovirulence and spread to cause emergences of vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV2). After its global withdrawal from routine immunization in 2016, outbreak response use has created a cycle of VDPV2 emergences that threaten eradication. We implemented a hierarchical model based on VP1 region genetic divergence, time, and location to attribute emergences to campaigns and identify risk factors. We found that a 10 percentage point increase in population immunity in children younger than 5 years at the campaign time and location corresponds to a 18.0% decrease (95% credible interval [CrI], 6.3%-28%) in per-campaign relative risk, and that campaign size is associated with emergence risk (relative risk scaling with population size to a power of 0.80; 95% CrI, .50-1.10). Our results imply how Sabin OPV2 can be used alongside the genetically stable but supply-limited novel OPV2 (listed for emergency use in November 2020) to minimize emergence risk.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.