Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36629103›Full record

ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2023

Drivers and facilitators of the illegal killing of elephants across 64 African sites.

Timothy Kuiper, Res Altwegg, Colin Beale, Thea Carroll, Holly T Dublin, Severin Hauenstein, Mrigesh Kshatriya, Carl Schwarz, Chris R Thouless, Andrew Royle and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Strengthening biodiversity conservation and One Health through ranger monitoring of wildlife health in protected areas.Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2026
    Article
  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Timothy KuiperCentre for Statistics in Ecology, Environment and Conservation, Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7700, South Africa.ORCID 0000-0003-2502-4028
Res AltweggCentre for Statistics in Ecology, Environment and Conservation, Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7700, South Africa.ORCID 0000-0002-4083-6561
Colin BealeDepartment of Biology, University of York, York, UK.
Thea CarrollUN programme for Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants, Nairobi, Kenya.
Holly T DublinTechnical Advisory Group to the programme for Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants, University of Freiburg, Germany.
Severin HauensteinDepartment of Biology, University of York, York, UK.
Mrigesh KshatriyaUN programme for Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants, Nairobi, Kenya.
Carl SchwarzStatMathComp Consulting, Port Moody, British Columbia, Canada.
Chris R ThoulessSave the Elephants, Nairobi, Kenya.ORCID 0000-0003-3314-5778
Andrew RoyleU.S. Geological Survey, Eastern Ecological Science Center, MD, USA.
E J Milner-GullandInterdisciplinary Centre for Conservation Science, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, 11a Mansfield Road, Oxford OX1 3SZ, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-0324-2710

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Ivory poaching continues to threaten African elephants. We (1) used criminology theory and literature evidence to generate hypotheses about factors that may drive, facilitate or motivate poaching, (2) identified datasets representing these factors, and (3) tested those factors with strong hypotheses and sufficient data quality for empirical associations with poaching. We advance on previous analyses of correlates of elephant poaching by using additional poaching data and leveraging new datasets for previously untested explanatory variables. Using data on 10 286 illegally killed elephants detected at 64 sites in 30 African countries (2002-2020), we found strong evidence to support the hypotheses that the illegal killing of elephants is associated with poor national governance, low law enforcement capacity, low household wealth and health, and global elephant ivory prices. Forest elephant populations suffered higher rates of illegal killing than savannah elephants. We found only weak evidence that armed conflicts may increase the illegal killing of elephants, and no evidence for effects of site accessibility, vegetation density, elephant population density, precipitation or site area. Results suggest that addressing wider systemic challenges of human development, corruption and consumer demand would help reduce poaching, corroborating broader work highlighting these more ultimate drivers of the global illegal wildlife trade.

Indexed as

ElephantsAfricaAnimalsConservation of Natural ResourcesCrimeHumansSocioeconomic Factorscorruptionillegal wildlife trademonitoring the illegal killing of elephantspovertywildlife crimewildlife poaching

Identifiers

PMID36629103
PMCPMC9832558

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.