Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36627530›Full record

ArticleClinical rheumatology2023

A simple scoring model based on machine learning predicts intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in Kawasaki disease.

Yuto Sunaga, Atsushi Watanabe, Nobuyuki Katsumata, Takako Toda, Masashi Yoshizawa, Yosuke Kono, Yohei Hasebe, Keiichi Koizumi, Minako Hoshiai, Eiryo Kawakami and 1 more

Erratum issuedOpen access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Clinical rheumatology, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 18 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
6.7field-weighted citation impact, top 3% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 21 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Yuto SunagaFaculty of Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, University of Yamanashi, 1110 Shimokato, Chuo, Yamanashi, 409-3898, Japan.
Atsushi WatanabeFaculty of Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, University of Yamanashi, 1110 Shimokato, Chuo, Yamanashi, 409-3898, Japan.
Nobuyuki KatsumataFaculty of Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, University of Yamanashi, 1110 Shimokato, Chuo, Yamanashi, 409-3898, Japan.
Takako TodaFaculty of Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, University of Yamanashi, 1110 Shimokato, Chuo, Yamanashi, 409-3898, Japan. takakotojp@yahoo.co.jp.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0947-1290
Masashi YoshizawaFaculty of Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, University of Yamanashi, 1110 Shimokato, Chuo, Yamanashi, 409-3898, Japan.
Yosuke KonoFaculty of Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, University of Yamanashi, 1110 Shimokato, Chuo, Yamanashi, 409-3898, Japan.
Yohei HasebeFaculty of Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, University of Yamanashi, 1110 Shimokato, Chuo, Yamanashi, 409-3898, Japan.
Keiichi KoizumiFaculty of Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, University of Yamanashi, 1110 Shimokato, Chuo, Yamanashi, 409-3898, Japan.
Minako HoshiaiFaculty of Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, University of Yamanashi, 1110 Shimokato, Chuo, Yamanashi, 409-3898, Japan.
Eiryo KawakamiArtificial Intelligence Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan.
Takeshi InukaiFaculty of Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, University of Yamanashi, 1110 Shimokato, Chuo, Yamanashi, 409-3898, Japan.
University of Yamanashi Hospital · JPChiba University · JPNational Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center · JP

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionIn Kawasaki disease (KD), accurate prediction of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance is crucial to reduce a risk for developing coronary artery lesions.

objectiveTo establish a simple scoring model predicting IVIG resistance in KD patients based on the machine learning model.

methodsA retrospective cohort study of 1002 KD patients diagnosed at 12 facilities for 10 years, in which 22.7% were resistant to initial IVIG treatment. We performed machine learning with diverse models using 30 clinical variables at diagnosis in 801 and 201 cases for training and test datasets, respectively. SHAP was applied to identify the variables that influenced the prediction model. A scoring model was designed using the influential clinical variables based on the Shapley additive explanation results.

resultsLight gradient boosting machine model accurately predicted IVIG resistance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), 0.78; sensitivity, 0.50; specificity, 0.88). Next, using top three influential features (days of illness at initial therapy, serum levels of C-reactive protein, and total cholesterol), we designed a simple scoring system. In spite of its simplicity, it predicted IVIG resistance (AUC, 0.72; sensitivity, 0.49; specificity, 0.82) as accurately as machine learning models. Moreover, accuracy of our scoring system with three clinical features was almost identical to that of Gunma score with seven clinical features (AUC, 0.73; sensitivity, 0.53; specificity, 0.83), a well-known logistic regression scoring model.

conclusionA simple scoring system based on the findings in machine learning seems to be a useful tool to accurately predict IVIG resistance in KD patients.

Indexed as

Immunoglobulins, IntravenousMachine LearningMucocutaneous Lymph Node SyndromeDrug ResistanceHumansRetrospective StudiesROC CurveImmunoglobulins, IntravenousIntravenous immunoglobulin resistanceKawasaki diseaseMachine learningShapley additive explanation

Identifiers

PMID36627530
PMCPMC9832252
OpenAlexW4315619584

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.