ArticleTobacco control2024
Tobacco endgame intervention impacts on health gains and Māori:non-Māori health inequity: a simulation study of the Aotearoa/New Zealand Tobacco Action Plan.
Article in Tobacco control, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- What is the Relationship Between Raising the Minimum Legal Sales Age of Tobacco Above 20 and Cigarette Smoking? A Systematic Review.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2025Pooled it
- Commercial tobacco endgame themes in the Australian media from 2000 to 2021.Tobacco control · 2025Article
- Economic evaluation of the recent French tobacco control policy: a model-based approach.Tobacco control · 2025Article
- Smoking & autonomy: the generational tobacco endgame.Monash bioethics review · 2025Article
- Trends in smoking prevalence before and after the emergence of vaping in Aotearoa/New Zealand among 14-15-year-olds identifying as Māori, Pacific, European, or Asian: an interrupted time series analysis of repeated cross-sectional data, 2003-2024.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- Nicotine Reduction Standard in Cigarettes and Estimated Lives Saved and Deaths Averted.JAMA health forum · 2025Article
- 'Stopping the start': support for proposed tobacco control policies - a population-based survey in Great Britain 2021-2023.Tobacco control · 2025Article
- The Political Determinants of Oral Health Inequalities: Lessons in Policy Development and Implementation From Six Case Studies.Community dentistry and oral epidemiology · 2025Review
- Oversimplification of a complex public health issue that serves exploitative industry interests.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2025Article
- Impact of regulatory tightening of the Hungarian tobacco retail market on availability, access and cigarette smoking prevalence of adolescents.Tobacco control · 2025Article
- Colonial harm in new packaging: Indigenous critiques of the tobacco industry's 'harm reduction' rhetoric.Health promotion international · 2025Article
- Socioeconomic Variation in Tobacco Smoking Among the Adult Population in Ireland.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2025Article
- Perceptions of Children and Young People in England on the Smokefree Generation Policy: A Focus Group Study.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2025Article
- Patterns and experiences of smoking, electronic cigarettes (vapes) and heated tobacco use among people who smoke or who recently quit.The New Zealand medical journal · 2025Article
- Support for and likely impacts of endgame measures in the Smokefree Aotearoa Action Plan: findings from the 2020-2021 International Tobacco Control New Zealand (EASE) surveys.The New Zealand medical journal · 2025Article
- UK policymaker and expert perspectives on the smoke-free generation policy: a qualitative study.BMJ public health · 2025Article
- Opportunities for advancing science to inform tobacco regulation in an evolving tobacco landscape.Molecular psychiatry · 2025Article
- Looking back and planning ahead: the tobacco endgame and controlling tobacco industry interference in Aotearoa New Zealand.Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand · 2025Article
- Centering equity and justice in tobacco control.Tobacco control · 2024Article
- Estimated impact of a tobacco-elimination strategy on lung-cancer mortality in 185 countries: a population-based birth-cohort simulation study.The Lancet. Public health · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe Aotearoa/New Zealand Government is aiming to end the tobacco epidemic and markedly reduce Māori:non-Māori health inequalities by legislating: (1) denicotinisation of retail tobacco, (2) 95% reduction in retail outlets and (c) a tobacco free-generation whereby people born after 2005 are unable to legally purchase tobacco. This paper estimates future smoking prevalence, mortality inequality and health-adjusted life year (HALY) impacts of these strategies.
methodsWe used a Markov model to estimate future yearly smoking and vaping prevalence, linked to a proportional multistate life table model to estimate future mortality and HALYs.
resultsThe combined package of strategies (plus media promotion) reduced adult smoking prevalence from 31.8% in 2022 to 7.3% in 2025 for Māori, and 11.8% to 2.7% for non-Māori. The 5% smoking prevalence target was forecast to be achieved in 2026 and 2027 for Māori males and females, respectively.The HALY gains for the combined package over the population's remaining lifespan were estimated to be 594 000 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 443 000 to 738 000; 3% discount rate). Denicotinisation alone achieved 97% of these HALYs, the retail strategy 19% and tobacco-free generation 12%.By 2040, the combined package was forcat to reduce the gap in Māori:non-Māori all-cause mortality rates for people 45+ years old by 22.9% (95% UI: 19.9% to 26.2%) for females and 9.6% (8.4% to 11.0%) for males.
conclusionA tobacco endgame strategy, especially denicotinisation, could deliver large health benefits and dramatically reduce health inequities between Māori and non-Māori in Aotearoa/New Zealand.
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