ArticleAge and ageing2023
A novel prognostic nomogram for older patients with acute-on-chronic liver diseases (AoCLD): a nationwide, multicentre, prospective cohort study.
Article in Age and ageing, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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6 citing papers in PubMed, 11 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prediction of 6-year mortality in advanced splenomegaly-subtype schistosomiasis: a retrospective cohort study from Hubei, China.BMJ open · 2026Article
- Novel and simplified model for the precise identification of concurrent bacterial infections in patients aged 60 years and older with acute-on-chronic liver diseases: a nationwide, multicentre, prospective cohort study.Hepatology international · 2025Article
- A novel nomogram for the early identification of coinfections in elderly patients with coronavirus disease 2019.Virology journal · 2025Observational
- A model predicting the 6-year all cause mortality of patients with advanced schistosomiasis after discharge: Derived from a large population-based cohort study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Nomogram-based risk assessment for emergency cervical cerclage failure in patients with cervical insufficiency.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Construction and Evaluation of a Predictive Model for Grassroots Nurses' Risk Perception of "Internet + Nursing Services": A Multicenter Cross-Sectional Study.Journal of multidisciplinary healthcare · 2024Article
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16 authors at 15 institutions in 1 country.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundthe incidence of acute-on-chronic liver disease (AoCLD) is increasing.
objectiveto investigate the clinical features and risk factors of AoCLD and construct an effective prognostic nomogram model for older patients with AoCLD.
methodsdata from 3,970 patients included in the CATCH-LIFE study were used, including 2,600 and 1,370 patients in the training and validation sets, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify predictive risk factors in older individuals, and an easy-to-use nomogram was established. Performance was assessed using area under the curve, calibration plots and decision curve analysis (DCA).
resultsof the 3,949 patients with AoCLD, 809 were older with a higher proportion of autoimmune-related abnormalities, hepatitis C viral infection and schistosomiasis. In the older patient group, the incidence of cirrhosis, hepatic encephalopathy (HE), infection, ascites and gastrointestinal bleeding; neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), aspartate-to-alanine transaminase ratio (AST/ALT), creatinine and blood urea nitrogen levels were higher, whereas incidence of acute-on-chronic liver failure, white blood cell, platelet and haemoglobin levels; albumin, total bilirubin (TB), AST and ALT levels; international normalised ratio (INR), estimated glomerular filtration rate and blood potassium levels were lower than in the younger group. The final nomogram was developed based on the multivariate Cox analysis in training cohort using six risk factors: ascites, HE grades, NLR, TB, INR and AST/ALT. Liver transplantation-free mortality predictions were comparable between the training and validation sets. DCA showed higher net benefit for the nomograph than the treat-all or treat-none strategies, with wider threshold probabilities ranges.
conclusionsour analysis will assist clinical predictions and prognoses in older patients with AoCLD.
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