ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2023
Disentangling the causes of mumps reemergence in the United States.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed.
- A Chimeric Virus Approach Reveals the Matrix (M) Gene as a Critical Modulator of Mumps Virus Neurovirulence.Vaccines · 2026Article
- Quantifying the impact of vaccination on pertussis dynamics in Sweden.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Age- and Sex-Dependent Heterogeneity in Mumps Virus Immunity Among US Blood Donors Born Between 1928-1993.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Sex-based differences in mumps immunity after a third dose of measles-mumps-rubella vaccine.Vaccine · 2026Article
- Serological Mumps Evaluation of Medical Students in Catalonia (Spain): Is a Third Dose of Vaccine Needed?Journal of medical virology · 2026Article
- Mumps Virus: Replication, Immune Response, and the Changing Landscape of Vaccine Effectiveness.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Whole-genome analysis of mumps virus genotype F in Shandong, China (2006-2018).Frontiers in microbiology · 2026Article
- Evaluation and optimization of mumps-containing vaccination strategies: a study based on an individual-based stochastic model.EClinicalMedicine · 2025Article
- Alveolar macrophages are early targets of mumps virus.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Structure-based design of glycoprotein subunit vaccines for mumps.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Article
- Pertussis vaccines, epidemiology and evolution.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2024Review
- Modeling the population-level impact of a third dose of MMR vaccine on a mumps outbreak at the University of Iowa.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Review
- Identifying a Level of Neutralizing Antibody That Correlates With Protection From Clinical Mumps Disease During a 2017 Mumps Outbreak Among Military Service Members.Open forum infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Epidemiologic and clinical updates on viral infections in Saudi Arabia.Saudi pharmaceutical journal : SPJ : the official publication of the Saudi Pharmaceutical Society · 2024Article
- Investigating Local Patterns of Mumps Virus Circulation, Using a Combination of Molecular Tools.Viruses · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Over the past two decades, multiple countries with high vaccine coverage have experienced resurgent outbreaks of mumps. Worryingly, in these countries, a high proportion of cases have been among those who have completed the recommended vaccination schedule, raising alarm about the effectiveness of existing vaccines. Two putative mechanisms of vaccine failure have been proposed as driving observed trends: 1) gradual waning of vaccine-derived immunity (necessitating additional booster doses) and 2) the introduction of novel viral genotypes capable of evading vaccinal immunity. Focusing on the United States, we conduct statistical likelihood-based hypothesis testing using a mechanistic transmission model on age-structured epidemiological, demographic, and vaccine uptake time series data. We find that the data are most consistent with the waning hypothesis and estimate that 32.8% (32%, 33.5%) of individuals lose vaccine-derived immunity by age 18 y. Furthermore, we show using our transmission model how waning vaccine immunity reproduces qualitative and quantitatively consistent features of epidemiological data, namely 1) the shift in mumps incidence toward older individuals, 2) the recent recurrence of mumps outbreaks, and 3) the high proportion of mumps cases among previously vaccinated individuals.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.