Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36622766›Full record

ArticleCancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology2023

Validation of a Genetic-Enhanced Risk Prediction Model for Colorectal Cancer in a Large Community-Based Cohort.

Yu-Ru Su, Lori C Sakoda, Jihyoun Jeon, Minta Thomas, Yi Lin, Jennifer L Schneider, Natalia Udaltsova, Jeffrey K Lee, Iris Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Elisabeth F P Peterse and 52 more

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
1.4field-weighted citation impact, top 17% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed, 6 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Review
  2. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

62 authors at 20 institutions in 12 countries.

Yu-Ru SuBiostatistics Unit, Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle, Washington.ORCID 0000-0001-6150-960X
Lori C SakodaPublic Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington.ORCID 0000-0002-0900-5735
Jihyoun JeonDepartment of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan.ORCID 0000-0001-7003-3412
Minta ThomasPublic Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington.ORCID 0000-0001-9337-7015
Yi LinPublic Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington.ORCID 0000-0001-8644-614X
Jennifer L SchneiderDivision of Research, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, California.ORCID 0000-0002-6095-7942
Natalia UdaltsovaDivision of Research, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, California.ORCID 0000-0002-0679-4310
Jeffrey K LeeDivision of Research, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, California.ORCID 0000-0001-7404-4274
Iris Lansdorp-VogelaarDepartment of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-9438-2753
Elisabeth F P PeterseDepartment of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-4249-6169
Ann G ZauberDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York.ORCID 0000-0002-1764-5994
Jiayin ZhengPublic Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington.ORCID 0000-0002-5559-6847
Yingye ZhengPublic Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington.ORCID 0000-0002-3078-4200
Elizabeth HauserVA Cooperative Studies Program Epidemiology Center, Durham Veterans Affairs Health Care System, Durham, North Carolina.ORCID 0000-0003-0367-9189
John A BaronDepartment of Medicine, University of North Carolina School of Medicine, Chapel Hill, North Carolina.ORCID 0000-0003-3461-1056
Elizabeth L BarryDepartment of Epidemiology, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Hanover, New Hampshire.ORCID 0000-0001-9637-3036
D Timothy BishopLeeds Institute of Cancer and Pathology, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-8752-8785
Hermann BrennerDivision of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-6129-1572
Daniel D BuchananColorectal Oncogenomics Group, Department of Clinical Pathology, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-2225-6675
Andrea Burnett-HartmanInstitute for Health Research, Kaiser Permanente Colorado, Denver, Colorado.ORCID 0000-0003-4009-0680
Peter T CampbellBehavioral and Epidemiology Research Group, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia.ORCID 0000-0002-5549-2036
Graham CaseyCenter for Public Health Genomics, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia.ORCID 0000-0003-1584-5551
Sergi Castellví-BelGastroenterology Department, Hospital Clínic, Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBEREHD), University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.ORCID 0000-0003-1217-5097
Andrew T ChanDivision of Gastroenterology, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.ORCID 0000-0001-7284-6767
Jenny Chang-ClaudeDivision of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.ORCID 0000-0001-8919-1971
Jane C FigueiredoDepartment of Medicine, Samuel Oschin Comprehensive Cancer Institute, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, California.ORCID 0000-0001-8040-3341
Steven J GallingerLunenfeld Tanenbaum Research Institute, Mount Sinai Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-6998-9414
Graham G GilesCancer Epidemiology Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-4946-9099
Stephen B GruberDepartment of Preventive Medicine, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California.ORCID 0000-0001-8656-7822
Andrea GsurInstitute of Cancer Research, Department of Medicine I, Medical University Vienna, Vienna, Austria.ORCID 0000-0002-9795-1528
Marc J GunterNutrition and Metabolism Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization, Lyon, France.ORCID 0000-0001-5472-6761
Jochen HampeDepartment of Medicine I, University Hospital Dresden, Technische Universität Dresden (TU Dresden), Dresden, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-2421-6127
Heather HampelDivision of Human Genetics, Department of Internal Medicine, The Ohio State University Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, Ohio.ORCID 0000-0001-7558-9794
Tabitha A HarrisonPublic Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington.ORCID 0000-0002-4173-7530
Michael HoffmeisterDivision of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-8307-3197
Xinwei HuaPublic Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington.ORCID 0000-0003-2114-2975
Jeroen R HuyghePublic Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington.ORCID 0000-0001-6027-9806
Mark A JenkinsCentre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-8964-6160
Temitope O KekuCenter for Gastrointestinal Biology and Disease, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina.ORCID 0000-0003-4019-3903
Loic Le MarchandUniversity of Hawaii Cancer Center, Honolulu, Hawaii.ORCID 0000-0001-5013-980X
Li LiDepartment of Family Medicine, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia.ORCID 0000-0003-1802-9517
Annika LindblomDepartment of Clinical Genetics, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0001-7675-7569
Victor MorenoOncology Data Analytics Program, Catalan Institute of Oncology-IDIBELL, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain.ORCID 0000-0002-2818-5487
Polly A NewcombPublic Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington.ORCID 0000-0001-8786-0043
Paul D P PharoahDepartment of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0001-8494-732X
Elizabeth A PlatzDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland.ORCID 0000-0003-3676-8954
John D PotterPublic Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington.ORCID 0000-0001-5439-1500
Conghui QuPublic Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington.ORCID 0000-0003-1927-6245
Gad RennertDepartment of Community Medicine and Epidemiology, Lady Davis Carmel Medical Center and Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel.ORCID 0000-0002-8512-068X
Robert E SchoenDepartment of Medicine and Epidemiology, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.ORCID 0000-0001-7153-2766
Martha L SlatteryDepartment of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah.ORCID 0000-0002-1655-6543
Mingyang SongClinical and Translational Epidemiology Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.ORCID 0000-0002-1324-0316
Fränzel J B van DuijnhovenDivision of Human Nutrition and Health, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0001-8367-2352
Bethany Van GuelpenDepartment of Radiation Sciences, Oncology Unit, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0002-9692-101X
Pavel VodickaDepartment of Molecular Biology of Cancer, Institute of Experimental Medicine of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic.ORCID 0000-0003-2376-1243
Alicja WolkInstitute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0001-7387-6845
Michael O WoodsMemorial University of Newfoundland, Discipline of Genetics, St. John's, Canada.ORCID 0000-0001-8180-418X
Anna H WuDepartment of Preventive Medicine, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California.ORCID 0000-0003-0546-902X
Richard B HayesDivision of Epidemiology, Department of Population Health, New York University School of Medicine, New York, New York.ORCID 0000-0002-0918-661X
Ulrike PetersPublic Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington.ORCID 0000-0001-5666-9318
Douglas A CorleyDivision of Research, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, California.ORCID 0000-0001-6132-5165
Li HsuPublic Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington.ORCID 0000-0001-8168-4712
Fred Hutch Cancer Center · USKaiser Permanente · USGerman Cancer Research Center · DEErasmus MC · NLMassachusetts General Hospital · USUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill · USUniversity of Southern California · USUniversity of Virginia · USAmerican Cancer Society · USCancer Center of Hawaii · USCancer Council Victoria · AUCarmel Medical Center · ILCedars-Sinai Medical Center · USCentre international de recherche sur le cancer · FRCentro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas · ESComprehensive Cancer Center Vienna · ATCzech Academy of Sciences · CZDartmouth College · USDurham VA Health Care System · USInstitut Català d'Oncologia · ES

Funding

X-RAY CRYSTALLOGRAPHYP30CA008748 · NCI · SLOAN-KETTERING INSTITUTE FOR CANCER RES · PI SELWYN M VICKERS · 1985 to 2026
$347.4M
University of Hawaii Cancer Center CCSGP30CA071789 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII AT MANOA · PI Pallav Pokhrel · 1996 to 2026
$56.2M
Data sharing: the Colon Cancer Family Registry CohortU01CA167551 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE · PI Daniel David BUCHANAN, Steven Gallinger · 2018 to 2026
$16.8M
Optimizing Colorectal Cancer Screening PREcision and Outcomes in CommunIty-baSEd Populations (PRECISE)UM1CA222035 · NCI · KAISER FOUNDATION RESEARCH INSTITUTE · PI CHUBAK, JESSICA, CORLEY, DOUGLAS ALLEN · 2018 to 2023
$15.6M
Statistical Methods for Analysis of Tumor Heterogeneity in Genetic EpidemiologyR01CA189532 · NCI · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI HSU, LI · 2015 to 2023
$4.2M
Advancing equity in colorectal cancer genetic risk prediction through expansion of racial/ethnic minority representationR01CA244588 · NCI · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI PETERS, ULRIKE · 2020 to 2024
$3.5M
Comprehensive Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction to Inform Personalized ScreeningR01CA206279 · NCI · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI CORLEY, DOUGLAS ALLEN, HAYES, RICHARD BERNARD · 2017 to 2020
$2.7M
High-Performance Compute Cluster for Comprehensive Cancer and Infectious Diseases ResearchS10OD028685 · OD · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI BRADLEY, PHILIP · 2020 to 2020
$2.0M
Statistical Methods for Genetic Epidemiology StudiesR01CA195789 · NCI · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI HSU, LI · 2016 to 2019
$1.6M
Evaluating a Risk Prediction Model for Lung CancerK07CA188142 · NCI · KAISER FOUNDATION RESEARCH INSTITUTE · PI SAKODA, LORI · 2015 to 2019
$920k
Optimizing long-term post-polypectomy surveillance for colorectal cancer prevention using a prediction rule developed from a large, community-based cohortK07CA212057 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI LEE, JEFFREY KUANG ZOU · 2016 to 2020
$869k
Colorectal Cancer Risks in People <50 Years of AgeR03CA215775 · NCI · NEW YORK UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE · PI HAYES, RICHARD BERNARD · 2018 to 2019
$188k
NCI NIH HHS K07 CA188142NCI NIH HHS K07 CA212057NCI NIH HHS P30 CA008748NCI NIH HHS P30 CA071789NCI NIH HHS R01 CA189532NCI NIH HHS R01 CA195789NCI NIH HHS R01 CA206279NCI NIH HHS R01 CA244588NCI NIH HHS R03 CA215775NCI NIH HHS U01 CA167551NCI NIH HHS UM1 CA222035NIH HHS S10 OD028685World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPolygenic risk scores (PRS) which summarize individuals' genetic risk profile may enhance targeted colorectal cancer screening. A critical step towards clinical implementation is rigorous external validations in large community-based cohorts. This study externally validated a PRS-enhanced colorectal cancer risk model comprising 140 known colorectal cancer loci to provide a comprehensive assessment on prediction performance.

methodsThe model was developed using 20,338 individuals and externally validated in a community-based cohort (n = 85,221). We validated predicted 5-year absolute colorectal cancer risk, including calibration using expected-to-observed case ratios (E/O) and calibration plots, and discriminatory accuracy using time-dependent AUC. The PRS-related improvement in AUC, sensitivity and specificity were assessed in individuals of age 45 to 74 years (screening-eligible age group) and 40 to 49 years with no endoscopy history (younger-age group).

resultsIn European-ancestral individuals, the predicted 5-year risk calibrated well [E/O = 1.01; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.91-1.13] and had high discriminatory accuracy (AUC = 0.73; 95% CI, 0.71-0.76). Adding the PRS to a model with age, sex, family and endoscopy history improved the 5-year AUC by 0.06 (P < 0.001) and 0.14 (P = 0.05) in the screening-eligible age and younger-age groups, respectively. Using a risk-threshold of 5-year SEER colorectal cancer incidence rate at age 50 years, adding the PRS had a similar sensitivity but improved the specificity by 11% (P < 0.001) in the screening-eligible age group. In the younger-age group it improved the sensitivity by 27% (P = 0.04) with similar specificity.

conclusionsThe proposed PRS-enhanced model provides a well-calibrated 5-year colorectal cancer risk prediction and improves discriminatory accuracy in the external cohort. IMPACT: The proposed model has potential utility in risk-stratified colorectal cancer prevention.

Indexed as

Colorectal NeoplasmsAgedHumansMiddle AgedRisk AssessmentRisk Factors

Identifiers

PMID36622766
PMCPMC9992158
OpenAlexW4313830725

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.