Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36619681›Full record

ArticleFrontiers in reproductive health2022

The role of machine learning in HIV risk prediction.

Joshua Fieggen, Eli Smith, Lovkesh Arora, Bradley Segal

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Frontiers in reproductive health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
6.0field-weighted citation impact, top 3% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 32 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Machine learning for personalized risk assessment of HIV, syphilis, gonorrhoea and chlamydia: A systematic review and meta-analysis.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Joshua FieggenSchool of Public Health and Family Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
Eli SmithPhithos Technologies, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Lovkesh AroraPhithos Technologies, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Bradley SegalPhithos Technologies, Johannesburg, South Africa.
University of Cape Town · ZAUniversity of the Witwatersrand · ZA

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Despite advances in reducing HIV-related mortality, persistently high HIV incidence rates are undermining global efforts to end the epidemic by 2030. The UNAIDS Fast-track targets as well as other preventative strategies, such as pre-exposure prophylaxis, have been identified as priority areas to reduce the ongoing transmission threatening to undermine recent progress. Accurate and granular risk prediction is critical for these campaigns but is often lacking in regions where the burden is highest. Owing to their ability to capture complex interactions between data, machine learning and artificial intelligence algorithms have proven effective at predicting the risk of HIV infection in both high resource and low resource settings. However, interpretability of these algorithms presents a challenge to the understanding and adoption of these algorithms. In this perspectives article, we provide an introduction to machine learning and discuss some of the important considerations when choosing the variables used in model development and when evaluating the performance of different machine learning algorithms, as well as the role emerging tools such as Shapely Additive Explanations may play in helping understand and decompose these models in the context of HIV. Finally, we discuss some of the potential public health and clinical use cases for such decomposed risk assessment models in directing testing and preventative interventions including pre-exposure prophylaxis, as well as highlight the potential integration synergies with algorithms that predict the risk of sexually transmitted infections and tuberculosis.

Indexed as

artificial intelligenceHIVmachine learningPrEPpreventionrisk prediction

Identifiers

PMID36619681
PMCPMC9815547
OpenAlexW4312187620

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.