ArticleDiagnostics (Basel, Switzerland)2022
Suboptimal Performance of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prediction Models in Patients with Hepatitis B Virus-Related Cirrhosis.
Article in Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland), 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 10 citations in OpenAlex.
- Phase 3 Validation of PAaM for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Stratification in Cirrhosis.Gastroenterology · 2025Article
- Methylated SEPT9 combined with AFP and PIVKA-II is effective for the detection of HCC in high-risk population.BMC gastroenterology · 2023Article
- Hepatocellular carcinoma prediction model performance decreases with long-term antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis B patients.Clinical and molecular hepatology · 2023Article
- Article
- Assessing the Predictive Accuracy of the aMAP Risk Score for Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC): Diagnostic Test Accuracy and Meta-analysis.Journal of clinical and experimental hepatologyReview
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Authors and funding
12 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
This study aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of pre-existing well-validated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models, established in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis who started potent antiviral therapy (AVT). We retrospectively reviewed the cases of 1339 treatment-naïve patients with HBV-related cirrhosis who started AVT (median period, 56.8 months). The scores of the pre-existing HCC risk prediction models were calculated at the time of AVT initiation. HCC developed in 211 patients (15.1%), and the cumulative probability of HCC development at 5 years was 14.6%. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that older age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.023), lower platelet count (aHR, 0.997), lower serum albumin level (aHR, 0.578), and greater LS value (aHR, 1.012) were associated with HCC development. Harrell’s c-indices of the PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, modified REACH-B, CAMD, aMAP, HCC-RESCUE, AASL-HCC, Toronto HCC Risk Index, PLAN-B, APA-B, CAGE-B, and SAGE-B models were suboptimal in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis, ranging from 0.565 to 0.667. Nevertheless, almost all patients were well stratified into low-, intermediate-, or high-risk groups according to each model (all log-rank p < 0.05), except for HCC-RESCUE (p = 0.080). Since all low-risk patients had cirrhosis at baseline, they had unneglectable cumulative incidence of HCC development (5-year incidence, 4.9−7.5%). Pre-existing risk prediction models for patients with chronic hepatitis B showed suboptimal predictive performances for the assessment of HCC development in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis.
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