ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2023
Warming-induced tree growth may help offset increasing disturbance across the Canadian boreal forest.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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12 citing papers in PubMed, 78 citations in OpenAlex.
- Full Manure Recycling Risks an 18% Rise in China's Cropland NGlobal change biology · 2026Article
- From Glacial Refugia to Future Shifts: Unraveling the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of EndangeredBiology · 2026Article
- Global impacts of transportation infrastructure on forest degradation and loss.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Shifting growth-climate limitations in Canadian forests under recent climate change.Communications earth & environment · 2026Article
- Pervasive increase in tree mortality across the Australian continent.Nature plants · 2026Article
- Continuous frost causes a greater reduction in forest growth than isolated frost in the Northern Hemisphere.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Weather drivers of reproductive variability in perennial plants and their implications for climate change risks.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Shifting equilibria in a warming boreal forest.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Timber harvesting was the most important factor driving changes in vegetation composition, as compared to climate and fire regime shifts, in the mixedwood temperate forests of Temiscamingue since AD 1830.Landscape ecology · 2025Article
- Warming exacerbates global inequality in forest carbon and nitrogen cycles.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- A global synthesis and conceptualization of the magnitude and duration of soil carbon losses in response to forest disturbances.Global ecology and biogeography : a journal of macroecology · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Large projected increases in forest disturbance pose a major threat to future wood fiber supply and carbon sequestration in the cold-limited, Canadian boreal forest ecosystem. Given the large sensitivity of tree growth to temperature, warming-induced increases in forest productivity have the potential to reduce these threats, but research efforts to date have yielded contradictory results attributed to limited data availability, methodological biases, and regional variability in forest dynamics. Here, we apply a machine learning algorithm to an unprecedented network of over 1 million tree growth records (1958 to 2018) from 20,089 permanent sample plots distributed across both Canada and the United States, spanning a 16.5 °C climatic gradient. Fitted models were then used to project the near-term (2050 s time period) growth of the six most abundant tree species in the Canadian boreal forest. Our results reveal a large, positive effect of increasing thermal energy on tree growth for most of the target species, leading to 20.5 to 22.7% projected gains in growth with climate change under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The magnitude of these gains, which peak in the colder and wetter regions of the boreal forest, suggests that warming-induced growth increases should no longer be considered marginal but may in fact significantly offset some of the negative impacts of projected increases in drought and wildfire on wood supply and carbon sequestration and have major implications on ecological forecasts and the global economy.
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