ArticleBMC public health2022
ARIMA model for predicting chronic kidney disease and estimating its economic burden in China.
Article in BMC public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 48 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
48 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Screening for chronic kidney disease: a systematic review of emerging evidence and perspectives.Renal failure · 2025Pooled it
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- Time-Series Analysis and Age-Stratified Forecasting of Diarrheal Disease in Rwanda Using SARIMA Models.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Article
- Burden of chronic kidney disease caused by dietary risks in China from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis and comparison with global levels.Journal of clinical biochemistry and nutrition · 2026Article
- Risk factors for thoracic-osteoporotic thoracic vertebral compression fractures during the normalized prevention and control period of COVID-19.World journal of orthopedics · 2026Article
- Burden of Non-communicable Diseases Attributable to High and Low Ambient Temperatures, 1990-2031: A Forecasting Analysis for GBD 2021.Current medical science · 2026Article
- Global burden of ischemic heart disease attributable to temperature extremes in adults aged 40 years and older: Trends, inequalities, and projections (1990-2050).American journal of preventive cardiology · 2026Article
- Knowledge graph-enhanced deep learning for pharmaceutical demand forecasting.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Declining yet persistent asthma mortality among U.S. adults aged 65 years and older (1999-2020).Frontiers in medicine · 2026Article
- Prediction of pulmonary tuberculosis case trends among older adults in Chongqing based on time series models.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Global, regional, and national burden of NAFLD in adults aged 20-49 years (1990-2021): a comprehensive analysis of trends, decomposition, and health inequality.BMC gastroenterology · 2025Article
- Knowledge and awareness factors affecting kidney function and chronic kidney disease among the general population in the West Bank, Palestine: an online cross-sectional study.Annals of medicine · 2025Article
- Global sex disparities in lifetime risk of alopecia areata: a systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study, 1990 to 2021.Biology of sex differences · 2025Article
- Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease and its associated anemia, 1990 to 2021 and predictions to 2050: an analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021.BMC nephrology · 2025Article
- Forecasting antimicrobial resistance in China using a hybrid ARIMA-GM(1,1) model.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Alzheimer's disease and dementia in Japan: Epidemiological trends, regional disparities, and future projections.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2025Article
- Hybrid time series and machine learning models for forecasting cardiovascular mortality in India: an age specific analysis.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Long-term forecast for antibacterial drug consumption in Germany using ARIMA models.Naunyn-Schmiedeberg's archives of pharmacology · 2025Article
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9 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundChronic kidney disease (CKD) is an important global public health issue. In China, CKD affects a large number of patients and causes a huge economic burden. This study provided a new way to predict the number of patients with CKD and estimate its economic burden in China based on the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.
methodsData of the number of patients with CKD in China from 2000 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease. The ARIMA model was used to fit and predict the number of patients with CKD. The direct and indirect economic burden of CKD were estimated by the bottom-up approach and the human capital approach respectively.
resultsThe results of coefficient of determination (0.99), mean absolute percentage error (0.26%), mean absolute error (343,193.8) and root mean squared error (628,230.3) showed that the ARIMA (1,1,1) model fitted well. Akaike information criterion (543.13) and Bayesian information criterion (546.69) indicated the ARIMA (1,1,1) model was reliable when analyzing our data. The result of relative error of prediction (0.23%) also suggested that the model predicted well. The number of patients with CKD in 2020 to 2025 was predicted to be about 153 million, 155 million, 157 million, 160 million, 163 million and 165 million respectively, accounting for more than 10% of the Chinese population. The total economic burden of CKD from 2019 to 2025 was estimated to be $179 billion, $182 billion, $185 billion, $188 billion, $191 billion, $194 billion and $198 billion respectively.
conclusionThe number of patients with CKD and the economic burden of CKD will continue to rise in China. The number of patients with CKD in China would increase by 2.6 million (1.6%) per year on average from 2020 to 2025. Meanwhile, the total economic burden of CKD in China would increase by an average of $3.1 billion per year. The ARIMA model is applicable to predict the number of patients with CKD. This study provides a new perspective for more comprehensive understanding of the future risk of CKD.
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