Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36582747›Full record

ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2023

Recursive Zero-COVID model and quantitation of control efforts of the Omicron epidemic in Jilin province.

Xinmiao Rong, Huidi Chu, Liu Yang, Shaosi Tan, Chao Yang, Pei Yuan, Yi Tan, Linhua Zhou, Yawen Liu, Qing Zhen and 3 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Xinmiao RongHarbin Engineering University, Harbin, 150001, China.
Huidi ChuNortheast Normal University, Changchun, 130024, China.
Liu YangNortheast Normal University, Changchun, 130024, China.
Shaosi TanNortheast Normal University, Changchun, 130024, China.
Chao YangNortheast Normal University, Changchun, 130024, China.
Pei YuanYork University, Toronto, Canada.
Yi TanYork University, Toronto, Canada.
Linhua ZhouChangchun University of Science and Technology, Changchun, 130013, China.
Yawen LiuJilin University, Changchun, 130021, China.
Qing ZhenJilin University, Changchun, 130021, China.
Shishen WangChangchun Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun, 130033, China.
Meng FanNortheast Normal University, Changchun, 130024, China.
Huaiping ZhuYork University, Toronto, Canada.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Since the beginning of March 2022, the epidemic due to the Omicron variant has developed rapidly in Jilin Province. To figure out the key controlling factors and validate the model to show the success of the Zero-COVID policy in the province, we constructed a Recursive Zero-COVID Model quantifying the strength of the control measures, and defined the control reproduction number as an index for describing the intensity of interventions. Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis were employed to estimate and validate the impact of changes in the strength of different measures on the intensity of public health preventions qualitatively and quantitatively. The recursive Zero-COVID model predicted that the dates of elimination of cases at the community level of Changchun and Jilin Cities to be on April 8 and April 17, respectively, which are consistent with the real situation. Our results showed that the strict implementation of control measures and adherence of the public are crucial for controlling the epidemic. It is also essential to strengthen the control intensity even at the final stage to avoid the rebound of the epidemic. In addition, the control reproduction number we defined in the paper is a novel index to measure the intensity of the prevention and control measures of public health.

Indexed as

Basic reproduction numberControl reproduction numberElimination of cases at the community levelOmicron variantQuantitation of control effortsRecursive Zero-COVID Model

Identifiers

PMID36582747
PMCPMC9762187

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.