Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36581695›Full record

ReviewNature biomedical engineering2023

Tackling prediction uncertainty in machine learning for healthcare.

Michelle Chua, Doyun Kim, Jongmun Choi, Nahyoung G Lee, Vikram Deshpande, Joseph Schwab, Michael H Lev, Ramon G Gonzalez, Michael S Gee, Synho Do

Abstract readReview
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Review in Nature biomedical engineering, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 43 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
43citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

43 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Michelle ChuaDepartment of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
Doyun KimDepartment of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
Jongmun ChoiDepartment of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
Nahyoung G LeeDepartment of Ophthalmology, Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary, Boston, MA, USA.
Vikram DeshpandeDepartment of Pathology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
Joseph SchwabDepartment of Orthopedic Surgery, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
Michael H LevDepartment of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0236-7319
Ramon G GonzalezDepartment of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
Michael S GeeDepartment of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
Synho DoDepartment of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA. sdo@mgh.harvard.edu.ORCID 0000-0001-6211-7050

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Predictive machine-learning systems often do not convey the degree of confidence in the correctness of their outputs. To prevent unsafe prediction failures from machine-learning models, the users of the systems should be aware of the general accuracy of the model and understand the degree of confidence in each individual prediction. In this Perspective, we convey the need of prediction-uncertainty metrics in healthcare applications, with a focus on radiology. We outline the sources of prediction uncertainty, discuss how to implement prediction-uncertainty metrics in applications that require zero tolerance to errors and in applications that are error-tolerant, and provide a concise framework for understanding prediction uncertainty in healthcare contexts. For machine-learning-enabled automation to substantially impact healthcare, machine-learning models with zero tolerance for false-positive or false-negative errors must be developed intentionally.

Indexed as

Machine LearningUncertainty

Identifiers

PMID36581695

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.