ArticleBMJ open2022
Development and validation of a novel 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction nomogram for the United Arab Emirates national population.
Article in BMJ open, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 7 citations in OpenAlex.
- External validation of the American heart association's PREVENT equations in predicting atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk among Arab women and men: a retrospective cohort study.BMC cardiovascular disorders · 2025Article
- Exploring the Current Tools in Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in the Middle East and the Need for Region-Specific Models - A Scoping Review.Therapeutics and clinical risk management · 2025Review
- Disease Risk Score Derivation and Validation in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates: A Retrospective Cohort Study.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2024Article
- Article
- Coexistence of Standard Modifiable, Other Classical, and Novel and Classical Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors in Middle Eastern Young Women.Vascular health and risk management · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
1 author at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesAtherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality among United Arab Emirates (UAE) nationals. Recent studies have shown that current tools are poor in predicting the risk of incident ASCVD in Emiratis. To improve ASCVD risk prediction in this high-risk population, this study sought to develop and validate a novel and practical 10-year ASCVD risk nomogram using risk factors known to be significant in UAE nationals.
designA 10-year retrospective cohort study.
settingOutpatient clinics at a large public tertiary care hospital in Al-Ain, UAE.
participantsEmiratis aged ≥18 years without prior cardiovascular disease (CVD) who had presented to Tawam Hospital's clinics between 1 April 2008 and 31 December 2008, were included. Patients' data were collected retrospectively until 31 January 2020. EXPOSURE: Cox proportional hazards models were developed to estimate the 10-year ASCVD risk. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: Model discrimination and calibration were assessed using the Harrell C-statistic and the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino (GND) χ
resultsThe study included 1245 patients, of whom 117 developed ASCVD within 10 years. The ASCVD risk nomogram comprised age, sex, family history of CVD, hypertension treatment, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, glycosylated haemoglobin A1c and estimated glomerular filtration rate. The Harrell C-statistic was 0.826 and the GND χ
conclusionsThe developed nomogram provides an accurate prognostic tool for 10-year ASCVD risk prediction in UAE nationals. These findings may help guide future research on CVD prevention in this high-risk population.
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