Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36581423›Full record

ArticleBMJ open2022

Time without PSA recurrence after radical prostatectomy as a predictor of future biochemical recurrence, metastatic disease and prostate cancer death: a prospective Scandinavian cohort study.

Mats Steinholtz Ahlberg, Hans Garmo, Hans-Olov Adami, Ove Andrén, Jan-Erik Johansson, Gunnar Steineck, Lars Holmberg, Anna Bill-Axelson

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Mats Steinholtz AhlbergDepartment of Surgical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden mats.ahlberg@surgsci.uu.se.ORCID 0000-0002-2404-5890
Hans GarmoDepartment of Surgical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
Hans-Olov AdamiClinical Effectiveness Group, Institute of Health and Society, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
Ove AndrénDepartment of Urology, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden.
Jan-Erik JohanssonDepartment of Urology, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden.
Gunnar SteineckDepartment of Oncology, Sahlgrenska Academy at the University of Gothenburg, Division of Clinical Cancer Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Sciences, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Lars HolmbergSchool of Cancer & Pharmaceutical Sciences, King's College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4417-7396
Anna Bill-AxelsonDepartment of Surgical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveAlthough surveillance after radical prostatectomy routinely includes repeated prostate specific antigen (PSA)-testing for many years, biochemical recurrence often occurs without further clinical progression. We therefore hypothesised that follow-up can be shortened for many patients without increasing the risk of prostate cancer death. We investigated the long-term probabilities of PSA recurrence, metastases and prostate cancer death in patients without biochemical recurrence five and 10 years after radical prostatectomy.

designProspective cohort study. Stratification by Gleason score (≤3+4=7 or ≥4+3=7), pathological tumour stage (pT2 or ≥pT3) and negative or positive surgical margins.

settingBetween 1989 and 1998, 14 urological centres in Scandinavia randomised patients to the Scandinavian Prostate Cancer Group study number 4 (SPCG-4) trial. PARTICIPATION: All 306 patients from the SPCG-4 trial who underwent radical prostatectomy within 1 year from inclusion were eligible. Four patients were excluded due to surgery-related death (n=1) or salvage radiotherapy or hormonal treatment within 6 weeks from surgery (n=3). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Cumulative incidences and absolute differences in metastatic disease and prostate cancer death.

resultsWe analysed 302 patients with complete follow-up during a median of 24 years. Median preoperative PSA was 9.8 ng/mL and median age was 65 years. For patients without biochemical recurrence 5 years after radical prostatectomy the 20-year probability of biochemical recurrence was 25% among men with Gleason score ≤3+4=7 and 57% among men with Gleason score ≥4+3=7; the probabilities for metastases were 0.8% and 17%; and for prostate cancer death 0.8% and 12%, respectively. The long-term probabilities were higher for pT ≥3 versus pT2 and for positive versus negative surgical margins. Limitations include small size of the cohort.

conclusionMany patients with favourable histopathology without biochemical recurrence 5 years after radical prostatectomy could stop follow-up earlier than 10 years after radical prostatectomy.

Indexed as

Prostate-Specific AntigenProstatic NeoplasmsAgedCohort StudiesHumansMaleMargins of ExcisionNeoplasm Recurrence, LocalProspective StudiesProstatectomyProstate-Specific AntigenEpidemiologyProstate diseaseUrological tumours

Identifiers

PMID36581423
PMCPMC9806038

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.