ArticleDiabetes care2023
Projections of Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes Burden in the U.S. Population Aged <20 Years Through 2060: The SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study.
Article in Diabetes care, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT06837181 (Studying the Presence of CFRD Complications With Thoughtful Recruitment), which is not on this map. Cited by 100 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Studying the Presence of CFRD Complications With Thoughtful Recruitment (SPeCTRuM)
Who cites it
100 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Pooled it
- Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of an Intensive Lifestyle Intervention Versus Usual Care for Latino Youth With Prediabetes.Pediatric obesity · 2025Trial
- Trial and Participant Characteristics of a Home-Visiting Diabetes Intervention: TheJournal of diabetes research · 2025Trial
- Circulating MicroRNAs as Predictors of Beta Cell Function in Youth-onset Type 2 Diabetes: The TODAY Study.The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism · 2024Trial
- Trial
- Potassium Magnesium Citrate Is Superior to Potassium Chloride in Reversing Metabolic Side Effects of Chlorthalidone.Hypertension (Dallas, Tex. : 1979) · 2023Trial
- Cardiometabolic Disease Education and Health Services Among Public High Schools.JAMA network open · 2026Article
- Linking pediatric obesity to youth-onset type 2 diabetes: integrated longitudinal and cross-sectional evidence from population-based studies worldwide.Clinical and experimental pediatrics · 2026Article
- Cardiovascular Risk Factor Control Among Young Adults With Diabetes in the United States Between 2013 and 2023.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2026Article
- Screening and Monitoring for Presymptomatic Type 1 Diabetes: A Time for Action.Hormone research in paediatrics · 2026Review
- Evaluating the association of adolescent and caregiver grit with hemoglobin A1c in adolescents with type 1 diabetes.Journal of pediatric psychology · 2026Article
- Incidence and remission of endometriosis in Germany based on prevalence data from 35 million patients from the statutory health insurance.BMC women's health · 2026Article
- Development of the Pediatric Type 2 Diabetes Impact Measure (P-TIM).Journal of patient-reported outcomes · 2026Article
- Risk factors for unplanned cesarean delivery among pregnant individuals with pre-existing diabetes.Pregnancy (Hoboken, N.J.) · 2026Article
- Family influences on type 2 diabetes self-management: Perspectives of African American adults with food insecurity.Patient education and counseling · 2026Article
- Perspective in 3D mesenchymal stromal cells as tools for potential diabetes treatment.Research in pharmaceutical sciences · 2026Review
- Relationship Between Hypoglycemia Frequency and Academic Performance in Children With Type 1 Diabetes.Cureus · 2026Article
- Use of Small Organic Molecules to Improve Pancreatic Beta Cell Resilience to IAPP-Induced Proteotoxic Stress.International journal of molecular sciences · 2026Review
- Communal coping with type 2 diabetes: A 5-year measurement burst study.Health psychology : official journal of the Division of Health Psychology, American Psychological Association · 2026Article
- Safety and pharmacokinetics of teplizumab in children less than 8 years of age with stage 2 type 1 diabetes.Diabetologia · 2026Article
40 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
14 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveTo project the prevalence and number of youths with diabetes and trends in racial and ethnic disparities in the U.S. through 2060. RESEARCH DESIGN AND
methodsBased on a mathematical model and data from the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study for calendar years 2002-2017, we projected the future prevalence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes among youth aged <20 years while considering different scenarios of future trends in incidence.
resultsThe number of youths with diabetes will increase from 213,000 (95% CI 209,000; 218,000) (type 1 diabetes 185,000, type 2 diabetes 28,000) in 2017 to 239,000 (95% CI 209,000; 282,000) (type 1 diabetes 191,000, type 2 diabetes 48,000) in 2060 if the incidence remains constant as observed in 2017. Corresponding relative increases were 3% (95% CI -9%; 21%) for type 1 diabetes and 69% (95% CI 43%; 109%) for type 2 diabetes. Assuming that increasing trends in incidence observed between 2002 and 2017 continue, the projected number of youths with diabetes will be 526,000 (95% CI 335,000; 893,000) (type 1 diabetes 306,000, type 2 diabetes 220,000). Corresponding relative increases would be 65% (95% CI 12%; 158%) for type 1 diabetes and 673% (95% CI 362%; 1,341%) for type 2 diabetes. In both scenarios, substantial widening of racial and ethnic disparities in type 2 diabetes prevalence are expected, with the highest prevalence among non-Hispanic Black youth.
conclusionsThe number of youths with diabetes in the U.S. is likely to substantially increase in future decades, which emphasizes the need for prevention to attenuate this trend.
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