ArticleUnited European gastroenterology journal2023
Prediction of infected pancreatic necrosis in acute necrotizing pancreatitis by the modified pancreatitis activity scoring system.
Article in United European gastroenterology journal, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 14 citations in OpenAlex.
- Global research trends in necrotizing pancreatitis: a bibliometric analysis from 2013 to 2024.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Pooled it
- Predicting infected pancreatic necrosis in acute pancreatitis using machine learning models and feature selection.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Inflammation, Organ Failure, and the Path to Surgery in Acute Pancreatitis.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2026Article
- Diagnosis of infected pancreatic necrosis: A review of the role of blood biomarkers.Indian journal of gastroenterology : official journal of the Indian Society of Gastroenterology · 2025Review
- From Drainage to Strategy: A Call for Standardization in Necrotizing Pancreatitis.United European gastroenterology journal · 2025Article
- Prediction of infected pancreatic necrosis in patients with acute necrotizing pancreatitis based on ensemble machine learning model.World journal of emergency surgery : WJES · 2025Article
- Stress-Induced Hyperglycemia as an Independent Predictor of Infectious Pancreatic Necrosis in Acute Pancreatitis: A Machine Learning-Driven Prognostic Model.Journal of inflammation research · 2025Article
- Early clinical predictors of infected pancreatic necrosis: a multicentre cohort study.eGastroenterology · 2024Article
- Efficacy and Safety of Anhydrous Ethanol-Assisted Endoscopic Ultrasound-Guided Transluminal Necrosectomy in Infected Necrotizing Pancreatitis.Digestive diseases and sciences · 2024Observational
- Early prediction and prevention of infected pancreatic necrosis.World journal of gastroenterology · 2024Article
- Prediction of infected pancreatic necrosis in acute necrotizing pancreatitis by the modified pancreatitis activity scoring system.United European gastroenterology journal · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
15 authors at 5 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesInfected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) is a significant complication of acute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP). Early identification of patients at high risk of IPN would enable appropriate treatment, but there is a lack of valid tools. This study aimed to assess the performance of the Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System (PASS) and its modifications (by removing or reducing the weight of opioid usage) in predicting IPN in a cohort of predicted severe ANP patients.
methodsData was prospectively collected in the TRACE trial (2017-2020) involving 16 sites across China. The predictive performance of PASS, modified PASS (mPASS), and conventional indices were assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Hosmer-Lemeshow Ĉ-test, Brier score, and Fagan's nomogram. Multivariate logistic regression analysis (MLRA) was used to define the relationship between the best-performing PASS/mPASS model and IPN.
resultsA total of 508 subjects were enrolled (median age, 43 years; 62.8% males) in the original trial, and 122 developed IPN (24%) within 90 days after randomization. Compared with non-IPN patients, the scores of PASS and its modified models were significantly higher in the IPN patients (all p < 0.001). Among the PASS and its modifications, mPASS-4 had the largest AUC, the lowest Brier score, and good calibration. The mPASS-4 model demonstrated an AUC of 0.752 in predicting IPN (the optimal cut-off for the mPASS-4 was 292.5) and outperformed the conventional indices. The MLRA results showed that mPASS-4 >292.5 was an independent risk factor of IPN (OR: 3.6, 95% CI: 2.1-6.3).
conclusionThe PASS and its modifications during the first week of ANP onset predict the development of IPN, with mPASS-4 performing best. The mPASS-4 model simplifies the original PASS, increasing the likelihood of clinical implementation.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.