ArticleEconomic modelling2023
Modelling pandemic risks for policy analysis and forecasting.
Article in Economic modelling, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
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Abstract
What were the economic effects of vaccination campaign, agents' adaptation to containment measures, and fiscal and monetary measures during the COVID-19 pandemic? To quantify these effects, we augment the ECB's macro-econometric model with an endogenous epidemiological block, providing one of the first institutional policy models with epidemiological elements. The model tracks closely actual pandemic developments by relying on detailed epidemiological data and by nesting a wide range of features, including vaccination campaigns, emergence of new variants and learning effects. Importantly, it includes an endogenous policy reaction function for containment measures, allowing counterfactual simulations. Our simulation results show that: (i) agents' adaptation to containment measures over time was key in reducing negative macroeconomic consequences of lockdowns, (ii) the vaccination campaign slowed down infection rates and hospitalizations, enabling a relaxation of containment measures and avoiding a sharp double dip in economic activity and (iii) complementary fiscal and monetary policy interventions provided support to the economy.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.