SynthesisApplied health economics and health policy2023
An Economic Model for Estimating Trial Costs with an Application to Placebo Surgery Trials.
Synthesis in Applied health economics and health policy, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 4 citations in OpenAlex.
- A data-driven methodological framework for representative recruitment in psychiatric research: insights from the DOCUMENT study.BMC psychiatry · 2026Article
- Influences on clinical trial participation: Enhancing recruitment through a gender lens - A scoping review.Contemporary clinical trials communications · 2024Article
- Selective Publication within Vascular Surgery: Characteristics of Discontinued and Unpublished Randomized Clinical Trials.Annals of vascular surgery · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors at 4 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND
objectiveWaste in clinical trials remains rife. We developed an economic model to predict the cost of trials based on input costs, duration, power, number of sites, recruitment eligibility and consenting rates.
methodsWe parameterised the model for three proxy placebo-controlled surgical trials using data from a systematic review, a bespoke cost survey, and from the literature. We used the model to compare target and actual trial performance for (i) a trial that was completed on time but with more sites, (ii) a trial that completed after a time extension, and (iii) an incomplete trial.
resultsSuccessful trials more accurately anticipated the true recruitment rate that they achieved and those that overestimated this were most likely to fail. The costs of overestimating recruitment rates were dramatic: all proxy trials had significantly higher costs than planned, with additional funding of at least AUD$600,000 (50% above budget) required for trials that completed after adding more sites or more time, and over AUD$2 million (260% above budget) for incomplete trials.
conclusionsThis model shows the trade-offs between time and cost, or both, when recruitment is lower than anticipated. Greater consideration is needed to improve trial planning, reviewing, and funding of these trials to avoid costly overruns and incomplete trials.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.