ArticleThe journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences2023
Development of Prognostic Prediction Model to Estimate Mortality for Frail Oldest Old: Prospective Cohort Study.
Article in The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed, 4 citations in OpenAlex.
- Development and Validation of Mortality Prediction Models among Frail Participants in the UK Biobank Study.The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThis study was performed to derive and validate a prognostic prediction model for individualized estimation of mortality risk among the frail oldest old (aged 80 years or older).
methodsThis analysis was based on the prospective open cohort study from the Chinese Longevity and Health Longitudinal Survey. A total of 14 118 frail oldest old were included from the 2002 wave to 2014 waves; the study outcome was all-cause mortality. Available predictors included frailty, demographics, and social factors. Cox models were used to estimate the coefficients of the predictors and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator was used for selecting predictors. Model performance was measured by discrimination and calibration with internal validation by bootstrapping. We also developed a nomogram to visualize and predict the 3-year mortality risk based on the obtained prognostic prediction model.
resultsDuring the 16-years follow-up, 10 410 (76.42%) deaths were identified. The final model comprises the following factors: frailty, age, sex, race, birthplace, education, occupation, marital status, residence, economic condition, number of children, and the question "who do you ask for help first when in trouble." The model has valid predictive ability as measured and validated by Harrell's C statistic (0.602) and calibration plots.
conclusionsThis study provides a basic prognostic prediction model to quantify absolute mortality risk for the frail oldest old. Future studies are needed, firstly, to update, adjust, and perform external validation of the present model by using phenotypic frailty, and secondly, to add biomarkers, environmental, and psychological factors to the prediction model.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.