ArticleInternational journal of forecasting
Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term.
Article in International journal of forecasting. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- The global burden of inflammatory bowel disease: from 2025 to 2045.Nature reviews. Gastroenterology & hepatology · 2025Review
- Global sensitivity analysis of integrated assessment models with multivariate outputs.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2025Article
- An inevitably ageing world: analysis on the evolutionary pattern of age structure in 200 countries.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Article
- Global population: from Super-Malthus behavior to Doomsday criticality.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Article
- Surface Functionalization of Sugarcane-Bagasse-Derived Cellulose Nanocrystal for Pickering Emulsion Gel: Microstructural Properties and Stability Efficiency.Gels (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- The Social Cost of Ozone-Related Mortality Impacts From Methane Emissions.Earth's future · 2023Article
- Review
- COVID-19 and excess mortality in Russia: Regional estimates of life expectancy losses in 2020 and excess deaths in 2021.PloS one · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Population forecasts are used by governments and the private sector for planning, with horizons up to about three generations (around 2100) for different purposes. The traditional methods are deterministic using scenarios, but probabilistic forecasts are desired to get an idea of accuracy, assess changes, and make decisions involving risks. In a significant breakthrough, since 2015, the United Nations has issued probabilistic population forecasts for all countries using a Bayesian methodology that we review here. Assessment of the social cost of carbon relies on long-term forecasts of carbon emissions, which in turn depend on even longer-range population and economic forecasts, to 2300. We extend the UN method to very-long range population forecasts by combining the statistical approach with expert review and elicitation. While the world population is projected to grow for the rest of this century, it will likely stabilize in the 22nd century and decline in the 23rd century.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.