ArticleJournal of air transport management2021
Forecasting temporal world recovery in air transport markets in the presence of large economic shocks: The case of COVID-19.
Article in Journal of air transport management, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
33 citing papers in PubMed, 190 citations in OpenAlex.
- Article
- Air transportation under COVID-19 pandemic restrictions: A wavelet analysis.Transport policy · 2023Article
- A data-driven analysis of the aviation recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.Journal of air transport management · 2023Article
- The state of Africa's air transport market amid COVID-19, and forecasts for recovery.Journal of air transport management · 2023Article
- Evaluation of the impact of Covid-19 on air traffic volume in Turkish airspace using artificial neural networks and time series.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Airline strategies during the pandemic: What worked?Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice · 2023Article
- Will We Fly Again? Modeling Air Travel Demand in light of COVID-19 through a London Case Study.Transportation research record · 2023Article
- Analysis of Factors Affecting the Sustainable Success of Airlines During the COVID-19 Pandemic.Transportation research record · 2023Article
- The impact of COVID-19 on airlines' price curves.Journal of air transport management · 2023Article
- Article
- U.S. network and low-cost carriers' performance in response to COVID-19: Strictness of government policies and passengers' panic.Research in transportation business & management · 2023Article
- A Review of COVID-19-Related Literature on Freight Transport: Impacts, Mitigation Strategies, Recovery Measures, and Future Research Directions.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Review
- The impact of COVID-19 on air passenger demand and COEnergy policy · 2022Article
- An airport level framework for examining the impact of COVID-19 on airline demand.Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice · 2022Article
- An overview of effects of COVID-19 on mobility and lifestyle: 18 months since the outbreak.Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice · 2022Article
- The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the US airline market: Are current business models equipped for upcoming changes in the air transport sector?Case studies on transport policy · 2022Article
- Will multi-industry supply chains' resilience under the impact of COVID-19 pandemic be different? A perspective from China's highway freight transport.Transport policy · 2022Article
- STARTUPS: Founding airlines during COVID-19 - A hopeless endeavor or an ample opportunity for a better aviation system?Transport policy · 2022Article
- Benchmarking the recovery of air travel demands for US airports during the COVID-19 Pandemic.Transportation research interdisciplinary perspectives · 2022Article
- Global cargo gravitation model: airports matter for forecasts.International economics and economic policy : IEEP · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
This paper estimates the relationship between the strength of economic shocks and temporal recovery in the world air transport industry. Our results show that world recovery of passenger demand to pre-COVID-19 levels is estimated to take 2.4 years (recovery by late-2022), with the most optimistic estimate being 2 years (recovery by mid-2022), and the most pessimistic estimate 6 years (recovery in 2026). Large regional differences are detected, Asia Pacific has the shortest estimated average recovery time 2.2 years, followed by North America 2.5 years and Europe 2.7 years. For air freight the results show a shorter average world recovery time of 2.2 years compared to passenger demand. At the regional level, Europe and Asia Pacific are comparable with average recovery times of 2.2 years while North America is predicted to recover faster in 1.5 years. The results show that the strength of economic shocks of various origins impacts the linear growth of passenger and freight traffic and the temporal recovery of the industry in a predictable transitory way. Hence, the impact of the COVID-19 recession will represent a temporary, although long-lasting, correction to previous growth levels.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.