ArticleHeliyon2022
A mathematical prediction model of infectious diseases considering vaccine and temperature, and its prediction in Hong Kong.
Article in Heliyon, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Construction of effective reproduction number of infectious disease individuals based on spatiotemporal discriminant search model: take hand-foot-mouth disease as an example.BMC medical research methodology · 2024Article
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3 authors.
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Abstract
Since 2020, COVID-19 has launched a rather difficult challenge in public health all over the world. For the current situation of COVID-19 outbreaks in various places, predicting the trend of COVID-19 plays a vital role in later policy-making, allocating medical materials, and developing the economy and society. Although there may be corresponding specific drugs soon, which can reduce the mortality of COVID-19 to a relatively low level, but the main popular Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 strain is highly infectious, which has a great impact on the elderly population, so COVID-19 cannot be equated with general influenza. This paper aims to predict the trend of the number of infections over time and the final number of infections from the fifth wave of epidemic in Hong Kong. To establish a more practical infection model, this paper introduces an infectious disease transmission model with the influence of temperature and vaccine. The model shows that the fifth wave of the epidemic in Hong Kong will end at the end of April 2022. At that time, the cumulative number of infections is expected to reach about 1.6 million. By formulating and implementing reasonable policies, the final number of infections can be controlled at about 1.1 million. Therefore, we hope that the policymakers and managers of COVID-19 in Hong Kong will formulate and adopt reasonable measures to control these epidemic.
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